5/10nl - flopped set, villain shoves river HU

Shady Poker · #1 09-13-2007, 11:14 PM

Villain was playing 26.76/21.08/4.38 over 370 hands when it was 6 handed. He was playing pretty standard and didn't see much out of line. It just got heads up (short stack just sat down and hasn't been a factor) and this is the second big pot, the first one I had a suited connector, called a flop with second pair, turned trips and raised and he folded.

We haven't been playing heads up long. My thoughts on the river are that he probably can't be bluffing here unless he had a hand like flopped 2pair or missed with QJ or something and is trying to represent the straight. 78 is possible but not likely given the line and even though I don't think he can be bluffing, I don't see many 8's hanging around till river here with the exception of maybe T8 or J8, I don't think he calls the turn raise with 98.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (3 handed)

SB ($365)
BB ($1890.25)
Hero ($2016)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, BB calls $25.

Flop: ($75) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $60, BB raises to $150, Hero calls $90.

Turn: ($375) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $290, Hero raises to $775, BB calls $485.

River: ($1925) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $930.25 (All-In)

sdv · #2 09-14-2007, 12:19 AM

raise flop, or jam turn...i don't like our gay raise
river is an easy fold. He would'n be waiting river to donk push his T9, so the only hand u beat is QJo, which is unlikely.

ddubois · #3 09-14-2007, 03:25 AM

I also bet turn larger, 975.

Besides T8/J8, 9c8c and Ac8c seem possible.

d2themfi · #4 09-14-2007, 03:35 AM

yeah most of the time i would 3bet this flop, sometimes just calling as you did. And i would raise more on the turn,

The river sucks cause ur getting such good odds, like 3-1 almost, but villainhas to know this and he has to know that an eight is certainly in ur range here. I think this would make me fold

Shady Poker · #5 09-14-2007, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise flop, or jam turn...i don't like our gay raise
river is an easy fold. He would'n be waiting river to donk push his T9, so the only hand u beat is QJo, which is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, meant to raise turn more, esp. 200bb deep. But to clarify, I don't think he is donk shoving river with a hand like 9T for value, I think his range may consist of a hand similar to that where he may now shove river as a bluff with that type of hand. I'm not sure this villain is capable of that move but that is what I meant.

winningfish · #6 09-14-2007, 10:38 PM

You got a set, the board's drawy, he shows lots of aggression, just get it in on the turn at the latest.

The river's an easy fold as played.