AA deepish, ugly river card

schwza · #1 07-10-2007, 02:09 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($384)
MP ($96.35)
CO ($1042.45)
Button ($717.20)
Hero ($907.15)
BB ($291.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $40, 1 fold, CO calls $28.

Flop: ($84) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $62, CO raises to $152, Hero calls $90.

Turn: ($388) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($388) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $300, hero?

i don't know villain too well. he's 26/23 in 100 hands.

creative · #2 07-10-2007, 02:12 AM

this seems like a clear fold to me

Jamougha · #3 07-10-2007, 02:28 AM

You think he raises the flop with a jack when you're >2 BI deep? Looks like he could be v-betting KK. Or making some weird bluff.

vhawk01 · #4 07-10-2007, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
this seems like a clear fold to me

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like a clear call to me. Is he checking behind AJ on the turn? Why? He's not checking behind any sets, thats for sure. This is a bad river to bluff at, but its a pretty awesome river to value bet at. I think he shows up with like KK, QQ, TT a lot here.

jfish · #5 07-10-2007, 02:44 AM

yea i call.

tarheeljks · #6 07-10-2007, 02:47 AM

w/these stack sizes, villain could definitely check behind w/AJ, but i still call.

jj12 · #7 07-10-2007, 02:49 AM

yeah call. raising the flop with AJ is pretty darn dumb but it is the only hand that he can have that beats you and a set (lol).

vhawk01 · #8 07-10-2007, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
w/these stack sizes, villain could definitely check behind w/AJ, but i still call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then bet 300 on the river? I guess its possible no read on villain, but this is a really weird way to play AJ. I'm calling, expecting to pretty much always be winning, and making a note when I don't.

sdv · #9 07-10-2007, 04:04 AM

easy call. He is on pure bluff i guess.
Flop - "pretty dry, he missed a lot, i raise"
turn - "ok. i just give up"
river - "wow. nice card, and he is passive. He obviously didn't had J and probably not AA-QQ (and probable fold it), so I'm bluffing... "

b33nz · #10 07-10-2007, 06:59 AM

that jack is as scary for him as it is for u. i dont think he bluffs here more than 10% and realistically like 5-8%. KK/QQ is somewhat unrealistic the way he played his hand. ur aces need to be good 30% of the time to break even. so WCS is he bluffs 15% of his range and vbets KK/QQ 10% of the time. thats still 75% of his range that beats you which are most likely a J/set.