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#1
02-08-2007, 02:39 PM
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Odds of AAx on the flop - Need help with prop bets
Some of the home games I go to have some people playing some very simple "props". I guess they came about because they were bored. The idea is that a player can choose any card, 2-A, and if that card comes up two to a flop then all of the players playing "props" will pay the player who has chosen that card. The payout is more if there is three to a flop, i.e. AAA, 888, etc.
If the flop is not seen due to betting, or lack of betting, the flop is not shown for "props". So, if the BB is given a walk, the flop is not shown. Last night, one of the regulars chose Aces for his "prop". On a whim I suggested to him that Aces are statistically less likely to show up on a flop. I was quickly shut down and was told it was just as likely as any other card. The reason why I said this was that when there are zero Aces dealt to the players, which would be the most likely situation to have AAx or AAA on the flop (more Aces in the remaining cards to choose from), it is more likely that the BB will get a walk. When a flop is seen, it is more likely that there are at least one, if not several, Aces being held by players. Therefore, in the long run (whether it be 1000, 10,000, or x number of hands), AAx or AAA will be less likely to show on the flop than a lower card, such as 55x or 555. I think that the loss of your edge is when the BB gets a walk since those situations are most likely to be when AAx or AAA will show on the flop. If you are losing your opportunity to see those flops then you are losing your best opportunities to "hit your prop". I was not arguing how much of an edge you lose, whether it is extremely small or statistically significant, just that you do lose some edge and in "props" like this (which is really like a coin flip) you do not want to lose any edge. Any thoughts? Thanks 
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