2/4 B&M - Bet or checkraise monster flop that I capped preflop?

[shane88888]

I think the discussion is better served if you posted explicit Pokerstove calculations (if that's what you used) with your exact limping and 3-betting requirements.

[ncskiier]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the discussion is better served if you posted explicit Pokerstove calculations (if that's what you used) with your exact limping and 3-betting requirements.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I'll keep that in mind next time I try to contribute.

I'd be interested to know what your issue is with the figure that I supplied and if you have one that you feel may be more accurate.

[shane88888]

Pokerstove:

Player 1 JJ: 27.97%
Player 2 Random: 13.0%
Player 3 Random: 13.0%
Player 4 Random: 13.0%
Player 5 TT+,AQs+,KQs+AQo+: 32.97%

There ya go.

[gobbledygeek]

Thanks for the numbers guys; looks to me like in the general case I have enough equity to cap it.

(brag: although in this case I happened to be up against AA, KK, QQ and 88) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[shane88888]

What day of the week and what time did this hand happen?

Were you up against the daylight retired crowd or was this the weekend retards?

I'm impressed three people played so weakly.

[jogger08152]

If the pot were smaller, this would be an easy check with an almost classic slowplaying hand. You will rarely lose the pot by giving a free card: if someone holds AA, KK or QQ here and they spike the set on the turn, you're going to lose the pot regardless of whether you bet, since the chance they will fold any of those hands to your single flop-bet at this limit in a B&M is exactly 0%. Thus, when they set up, the fact that you didn't bet will save you money, not cost you.

(As an aside, I think that if you rolled your hand over face-up and revealed your set, AA and KK would still fold less than half the time. Hope is a powerful factor. (Of course in this pot, they're correct to take off the turn based on implied odds, but I digress...))

That having been said, overpairs to the board will usually bet in any case, so if one of these is out behind you, you're going to get your checkraise in.

If no overpair is out against you and the flop gets checked through, a lot of likely holdings that can't beat you - like unpaired overcards and possibly smaller pairs - have a chance to "catch up" (or so they think), and the card you give cheaply now may net you extra action on the expensive streets (especially if a small pair sets up). You also have little to fear from draws: the board is calico and no matter what card hits the turn, a straight is very unlikely.

However: even taking all the above into account, you should bet. This is a nice big pot that you want to win outright, rather than worry about getting in extra bets on future rounds. There's a decent chance you will get raised by the button, and a lesser chance that you'll be checkraised by someone in front of you. Additionally, while you are unlikely to knock out a double-overcard hand (which is great, since these hands have almost no chance to beat you), your bet, and/or the raise that may follow it, may knock out a hand like Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - and this would be great too, since this is one of the few hands that actually has a shot, albeit a relatively remote one, to bust you.

Lots of good things can happen when you bet here, and very few bad ones, so go ahead and throw in your chips.

Best regards,
Jogger

[jjshabado]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove:

Player 1 JJ: 27.97%
Player 2 Random: 13.0%
Player 3 Random: 13.0%
Player 4 Random: 13.0%
Player 5 TT+,AQs+,KQs+AQo+: 32.97%

There ya go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats WAY too optimistic. You're in a 2/4 B&M so without reads 3-better has AK, AA, KK, and maybe QQ. Thats it. Some players you could limit that even further to AA and KK, some people out to the range you gave.

You also can't just assume people have random hands. I think you can easily assume two different overcards are out there (and likely all three) in people's hands and probably an underpair. I can't see that capping this is a good idea.

And to whoever said you could cap almost on set value alone, you need a lot more players for that to be true (basically the whole table).

[shane88888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove:

Player 1 JJ: 27.97%
Player 2 Random: 13.0%
Player 3 Random: 13.0%
Player 4 Random: 13.0%
Player 5 TT+,AQs+,KQs+AQo+: 32.97%

There ya go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats WAY too optimistic. You're in a 2/4 B&M so without reads 3-better has AK, AA, KK, and maybe QQ. Thats it. Some players you could limit that even further to AA and KK, some people out to the range you gave.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, you're in a B&M 2/4 game. Where do you play? Because if a reraise automatically means AA/KK/AK or maybe QQ, then you play in the worst 2/4 game in the world. It's called GAMBOOOLING.

Some players you could limit to AA and KK, but we are working without reads here (as you restated). So assuming the presence of AA or KK in the Pokerstove would be irrelevant to the discussion. However, it is considered in the reraiser's range.

When I ran this I wasn't all that concerned about accuracy; I was trying to illustrate to ncskiier why more info than a naked equity percentage is preferable.

However, to better the discussion, feel free to run and post some alternate numbers. Pokerstove is free.

[ QUOTE ]
You also can't just assume people have random hands. I think you can easily assume two different overcards are out there (and likely all three) in people's hands and probably an underpair. I can't see that capping this is a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are live 2/4 players who limped, called two, and called again. No strength can be assumed about their holdings until they tell you otherwise. Again, we have no reads here.

[ QUOTE ]
And to whoever said you could cap almost on set value alone, you need a lot more players for that to be true (basically the whole table).

[/ QUOTE ]

You've put four small bets into a pot of 23 small bet.

4/23 = 17.39%

You hit your set on the flop 1 in 7.5 times.

1/7.5 = 13.33%

That, right there, counts as an almost.

[shane88888]

Since this is bothering me:

Player 1 JJ: ~27.24%
Player 2 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o: ~14.1%
Player 3 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o: ~14.1%
Player 4 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o: ~14.1%
Player 5 TT+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+: ~30.37%

Players 2-4 are playing the top 50% of hands.

We now put them on the top 25% of hands:

Player 1 JJ: ~26.45%
Player 2 66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo: ~14.96%
Player 3 66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo: ~14.96%
Player 4 66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo: ~14.96%
Player 5 TT+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+: ~28.64%

[jjshabado]

[ QUOTE ]

Exactly, you're in a B&M 2/4 game. Where do you play? Because if a reraise automatically means AA/KK/AK or maybe QQ, then you play in the worst 2/4 game in the world. It's called GAMBOOOLING.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are WAY more loose passive players at 2/4 than gamblers. At least in any east coast casino I've played in. In fact in any given session I'll likely see 1 or 2 preflop caps, and 5 or 6 3-bets. And I'm usually responsible for a third of them.

[ QUOTE ]

These are live 2/4 players who limped, called two, and called again. No strength can be assumed about their holdings until they tell you otherwise. Again, we have no reads here.


[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think any strength can be assumed about their hand? There's a wide range of options, but you can certainly narrow it down a lot more than from "random hands".

[ QUOTE ]

You've put four small bets into a pot of 23 small bet.

4/23 = 17.39%

You hit your set on the flop 1 in 7.5 times.

1/7.5 = 13.33%

That, right there, counts as an almost.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. Please come play in my games if you think thats close enough. Not to mention that you don't win with your set all 13% of the time.