hands/hr. in a live game?

[baibj03]

I'm wondering what the general consensus is on how many hands per hour the average HE live full ring game gets in.

Also, what is the general consensus on how many hands a player needs to track to know whether he is a winning player?

[jimmytrick]

37/hr

quarter million

[jjshabado]

I figure 100 hands every 3 hours. Pretty close and easy math.

[Eponymous]

[ QUOTE ]
37/hr

quarter million

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a level? I thought it was more like several thousand hands. So you're saying if you play full time (2000 hrs/yr), you don't know if you're a winning player for over 3 years? And if you have a full time job and can play only 500 hours a year, you don't know if you're a winner for over 13 years? And even that assumes you play the same game at the same stakes for all that time.

[jimmytrick]

I am not saying that lesser amounts won't give you an idea, but you really won't know much after 50-100K.

I think it would be smart to grind a good sample of 200-300K online to see where your game stands before taking the bus to Vegas.

[redfisher]

This has come up several times and there was an article about it, but I can't find it in the archives. If you just want to know if you're a winning player, the hand number is very low (~4k) if you're at a decent actual winrate and are willing to accept some uncertainty. The $250K number is to calculate an actual winrate.

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
This has come up several times and there was an article about it, but I can't find it in the archives. If you just want to know if you're a winning player, the hand number is very low (~4k) if you're at a decent actual winrate and are willing to accept some uncertainty. The $250K number is to calculate an actual winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you actually meant what you just wrote then one single hand that you win is enough to say you are a winning player. That is as long as you are willling to "accept sonme uncertainty".

Jimbo

[Mandor_TFL]

No one knows how to calculate your winrate as it has too many variables to calculate. This is why no one ever answers the how many hands do I need to know my winrate questions.


Of course after 200k hands you could make a good estimate of a true winrate, but this would be so biased due to that massive variables introduced by the 3 year time span that it would actually be totally useless. So there is a correct answer that I imagine lies somewhere between 10k-25k hands, and would have a somewhat significant deviation due to the inherent luck involved in poker. However there is no correct answer to the question " How many hands is enough to calculate my winrate " Needless to say 1k hands is far too small, and 200k takes so long to get that the data itself has been corrupted by changes in the poker player and the poker playing community that occur over time. Play 10k hands find your winrate, and I bet it is rather close to that in reality.

[jjshabado]

[ QUOTE ]
This has come up several times and there was an article about it, but I can't find it in the archives. If you just want to know if you're a winning player, the hand number is very low (~4k) if you're at a decent actual winrate and are willing to accept some uncertainty. The $250K number is to calculate an actual winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

This may be true if your actual winrate is high (of course we're always accepting uncertainty, its possible to never win with pocket AAs in your entire life). But look at the case where you're a winning player at 0.1BB/hour. Obviously this person won't know they're a winning player until a lot of hands.

The more hands you play the closer you can get to your true winrate. If that number is high you can relatively quickly know you're a winning player, but if its not you can't.

[Eponymous]

It's sounding like the time spans are so long, no waits to know if they're truly winning at one level before moving up in limits. They just take shots at higher levels when their bankroll allows them (or sometimes when it doesn't). Otherwise, the only sure way to know is to say: Play until you're dead. If you are +$, you were a winning player. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]