AA with pos. vs paired river & fish. Check behind?

[BionicComma]

I have been in this situation a lot the past few days. I'll confidently have the lead in a hand, for example an overpair or TPTK, and the river will bring a card that either pairs the board or gives the villain two pair within his range.

I have been reasoning that its correct to check behind here because if this passive villain was behind then he is only calling a river bet with a better hand. What do you think?

Sorry about the manual conversion, but the site I use is down.


Villain is 29 / 33 / 0.2 over 45 hands. A bit fishy. I have seen him coldcall PF two or three times with weak hands.

7 players.

HERO is OTB with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain is CO

Preflop (7 players Pot: .75BB)
3 folds, Villain calls, Hero raises, SB & BB fold, Villain calls.

Flop (2 players Pot: 2.75 BB)

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain calls

Turn (2 players Pot: 3.75 BB)

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets, villain calls

Discussion point 1: what hand do you put villain on by the turn? I have him for combinations that give him one pair and a straight draw... hands like J9 thru K, Q9 - thru K.

River (2 players Pot: 5.75 BB)

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero...?

I feel like I should throw a bet in for value here but also as Ive said above it seems like a passive villain like this is only going to call with a better hand anyway, and 9J or 9Q is exactly the kind of hand he'd open limp with and chase to the river.

Bonus: Suppose we are first to act, same board and overall pattern. Is the river here a B/F in that case?

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

im confused. this is a really really easy bet. he has Kx or Tx always.

[DrModern]

Easiest value bet ever.

[Ampelmann]

Bet 100%. It's closer imo if the K paired. If villain is a station I still bet.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been reasoning that its correct to check behind here because if this passive villain was behind then he is only calling a river bet with a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Say wha? Passive villains call river bets with all sorts of shizz. They don't bet without good hands, and they don't check/raise without really good hands.

This is as standard a bet/fold as could possibly be.

[bozlax]

Responding blind: bet/fold.

After reading the post: uh, Villan's PFR can't be higher than his VPIP.[/nit]

This is an easy bet on the river. He's going to call with anything he's called with so far, and just because the 9 is in his range doesn't mean he has one. Further, you have to call one more after that; you just counterfeited KT, among other things.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

can we really bet/fold now that we pulled ahead of KT?

[BionicComma]

[ QUOTE ]
Responding blind: bet/fold.

After reading the post: uh, Villan's PFR can't be higher than his VPIP.[/nit]


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I got them backward. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


Consensus on this hand seems to be that I've got MUBS in this spot. Leak = plugged.


Results: Villain ends up showing ATo

[Ampelmann]

[ QUOTE ]
Responding blind: bet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have to call the raise.

[fretelöo]

Standard line for a passive flopping 2pr would be c/r turn, I think.

Thoug I wouldn't fold either.