(NLTRN) Bet or Check vs Thinking Player

[cwar]

This guy is 8% ROI over 2k+ matches and Im pretty sure he knows Im good from the little chat we had earlier. Ive been playing balls to the walls poker, 3betting light, attacking every limp cbetting like a mad man, floating including a double float. If he has a J on this flop he is definitely calling the flop bet. I dont know if he felts worse aces or a J seeing as he doesnt really know how crazy Ive been playing he probably just suspects it. Also Im pretty sure if I check the turn he will call a river bet with worse aces and a J on pretty much anything but a Q or a T (which he would very likely bet with the best hand).

The way I see it there pros and cons for both:
Pros for betting:
-Dont have to worry about free cards and bad cards creating tough river decisions vs villains donks (Q, T and possibly aces causing a chop)
-Stack worse aces(?)
Cons:
-Unlikely to get action unless Im beat
-Pot committed
-Lose value off hands that will pay off a river bet



Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t25/t50
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1840
BB: t1160

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t125</font>, BB calls t75 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t150)</font>.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t250, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t190</font>, BB calls t190 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t440)</font>.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t630, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero

Much later... About the same history Ive stayed very aggressive villain has stepped up the aggression a bit.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t40/t80
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
SB: t2110
Hero: t890

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB calls t40 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t120)</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t160, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">SB bets t80</font>, Hero calls t80 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t240)</font>.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t320, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t320, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">SB bets t200</font>, Hero calls t200