Sunday Million, AK preflop

[shaniac]

Simple preflop decision. Or not. No reads, everyone seems to be playing tight/solid.

PokerStars Game #12630702204: Tournament #63182595, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2007/10/14 - 20:09:46 (ET)
Table '63182595 669' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: makoko (74754 in chips)
Seat 2: Tizzle 10 (59169 in chips)
Seat 3: lovinAKs (182733 in chips)
Seat 4: redhookesb (114001 in chips)
Seat 5: foot0doctor (54412 in chips)
Seat 6: ynika (42707 in chips)
Seat 7: Gougagagagil (100448 in chips)
Seat 8: tunnny (30195 in chips)
Seat 9: shaniac (38400 in chips)
makoko: posts the ante 300
Tizzle 10: posts the ante 300
lovinAKs: posts the ante 300
redhookesb: posts the ante 300
foot0doctor: posts the ante 300
ynika: posts the ante 300
Gougagagagil: posts the ante 300
tunnny: posts the ante 300
shaniac: posts the ante 300
lovinAKs: posts small blind 1500
redhookesb: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to shaniac [Ah Ks]
foot0doctor: raises 6000 to 9000
ynika: raises 33407 to 42407 and is all-in
Gougagagagil: folds
tunnny: folds
shaniac:

[juttelstud]

I imagine you are way too shallow to fold AK here.

[mikeJ]

How fast did ynika move AI?

[shaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
How fast did ynika move AI?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, I wasn't looking at the table at the time. It all seemed to happen pretty fast.

[mikeJ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 314459700 89723532.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 184165620 89723532.00 { AKo }

W/ pot odds, you need 41.2% equity assuming everyone folds, so you need better than 41.2% equity, unless people are going to overcall w/ AQ.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.987% 45.60% 11.38% 365457216 91213875.00 { TT+, 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.013% 31.63% 11.38% 253473306 91213875.00 { AKo }

I think 99/AQ are fairly unlikely, esp the faster UTG+1 moved AI.

This seems extremely close and I guess I fold (?), but call from the sb/bb. W/ the extra 3.5% equity or so that suitedness provides, I'd call w/ AKs.

[djk123]

shove and it's not close. AQ is def in pushers range.

[mikeJ]

Hrm, I thought this was from a 109r. Shaniac is synonymous to 109r. Considering it's the sunday million, more people will have harder time folding AQ, but I do think giving full combos of AQ/99 is excessive.

I think that's enough to sway it to a call and it's close.

Remember that one time I cold 4-bet you djk? I'm not a nit. I'm not a nit. I'm not a nit. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
shove and it's not close. AQ is def in pushers range.

[/ QUOTE ]

vs an unknown I agree but it's not not close [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[gobboboy]

I think folding is fine, whatever.

AQ is in the pusher's range but utg has to be a factor too with his stack size and utg raise.

[Todd Terry]

With all 3 people in the hand, you have 31.5%, which is about equal to pot odds. I don't know how to calculate your equity with just 2 people in the pot while still taking UTG's range into effect with PokerStove or any other program. I think it's a very close decision, can't go wrong either way really. FWIW, I just don't see UTG+1 folding AQ or 99 here.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,992,286,068 games 13.203 secs 378,117,554 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.561% 27.89% 02.67% 1392564987 133121107.17 { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 37.977% 33.47% 04.50% 1671008357 224897619.17 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 31.462% 25.55% 05.91% 1275563002 295130995.67 { AhKs }