is this too deep to push this draw? HU 25nl

[nukewell]

table broke about 5 hands ago i stuck around because villian is balls: 41/21/3

ive been c/r heaps of flops with made hands and crap cause he just bashes the pot botton every cbet.

he definitely think TP is the nuts here so i figure any 5/7/d is good

is this a bit deep to push. is it better to just call the 3bet? usually i would lead then 3 bet all in but i thought this deep the 4th bet would be all in and id rather push all in then call all in

is it better to just call the 3 bet? i just hate it when a blank hits the turn and im OOP.


Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $43.75
Hero (BB): $44.05

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">SB raises to $0.75</font>, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">SB bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $43.30

[hendal]

Seen SB is reraising it looks like he isn't going anywhere. Provided he allways would call here a push is -ev because playin draws +ev is relying alot on FE.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
Provided he allways would call here a push is -ev because playin draws +ev is relying alot on FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not true.

getting it in here is fine, if you dont minraise the flop it makes the betsizing more comfortable

[nukewell]

ye i should have c/r to 6 then the betsizing is easier, 4 is not enough

[hendal]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Provided he allways would call here a push is -ev because playin draws +ev is relying alot on FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not true.

getting it in here is fine, if you dont minraise the flop it makes the betsizing more comfortable

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're sayin when villain will never fold this still is a +ev situation to stick it in?

[hanover]

Even if we add sets to his range, if we know he's going to town with TP, it's a coinflip.

Board: 3d Qd 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.185% 47.18% 00.00% 31296 1.50 { 7d5d }
Hand 1: 52.815% 52.81% 00.00% 35031 1.50 { QQ+, 77, 33, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

[vixticator]

After you get 4bet shoving is the only option assuming he's going to 4bet any Qx hand, stuff like that. Too much money in pot and you want to see two cards. Even though you have little/no FE.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if we add sets to his range, if we know he's going to town with TP, it's a coinflip.

Board: 3d Qd 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.185% 47.18% 00.00% 31296 1.50 { 7d5d }
Hand 1: 52.815% 52.81% 00.00% 35031 1.50 { QQ+, 77, 33, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }


[/ QUOTE ]Way too tight of a range here btw. Many more Qx hands in there. Also a bunch of flush draws. 41/21 assuming those stats are from 6max I expect this player to be raising the button HU like 40%+.

[hanover]

Agreed, I gave villain the upper part of his range .. even with every Qx and some flush draws added, the percentages don't change all that much.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Provided he allways would call here a push is -ev because playin draws +ev is relying alot on FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not true.

getting it in here is fine, if you dont minraise the flop it makes the betsizing more comfortable

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're sayin when villain will never fold this still is a +ev situation to stick it in?

[/ QUOTE ]

you said if villain will always call a push shoving the draw we have is always -EV. This is false as its possible for villain to call with worse hands.