25nl - Rivered Str8 vs Massive Overbet

[Logun]

readless on villain

Can anyone find a call here? I"m sure I will get paid off by LOTS of 9's but is this worth it?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $31.85
Hero (BB): $25.05
UTG: $29.50
MP: $18.25
CO: $14.90
BTN: $30.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $0.75</font>, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: ($1.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.25</font>, MP calls $1.25

River: ($4.10) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $16.00</font>, Hero....?

[CruS]

Calling here is almost like hoping to split the pot, which you get terrible odds to do.
I fold.

[Leviathan101]

I think I call here, although that might be a leak. He raised preflop, so if he has a boat its more likely its JJ or 88 than anything else. I think there is a decent to good chance he has A9, or AT, KT or other Tx. He could have 98, J9, 97, and 99 here as well but I dunno, I usually don't fold here. it's 13.5 : 22 here, so you need to have about about 35% equity to break even here. I think you are good and split often enough to make up for the times he has a boat. But I dunno, I tend to assume my opponent are bad, so maybe that's a bad way to think.

[Logun]

tbh I only really put him on JJ or TQ....

[CruS]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I call here, although that might be a leak. He raised preflop, so if he has a boat its more likely its JJ or 88 than anything else. I think there is a decent to good chance he has A9, or AT, KT or other Tx. He could have 98, J9, 97, and 99 here as well but I dunno, I usually don't fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he has either JJ, 88, A9, AT, KT, Tx, 98, J9, 97, 99 and you want to call?
The only hand we beat of his range in this case is A9 and we are getting terrible odds to call to hope for that one hand.

[Leviathan101]

He is also more likely to have A9 then 97 given the fact he raised preflop. If all the hands in his range are equally likely, it would be a fold, but I don't think they are. Rather I think they are more weigthed toward A9,AT,KT,JT,88-AA, than 98,J9 or 97. There is also a possible chance this is a busted flush draw. The strongest hands are the least likely, since obv the odds of him have A9 is greater than 99 here. I think it's maringally +ev if it is +ev.

[CruS]

Your logic does not make sense to me, as I said in my first reply, you almost want to call here because you hope to split a pot with another T for a high price.

[nukewell]

best you can hope for is a split.

i think its standard to overbet when a second best hand gets made. readless its harder but i doubt villina has a bare 9 here very often,. more likely JJ, QT 89s or some FH