Bluffing in Razz... good spot?

[ChrisA3]

Razz ($1/$2), Ante $0,10, Bring-In $0,50 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.20 SB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.60 BB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks

6th Street - (2.60 BB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

River - (6.60 BB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks___ ....


Opponent is not one of the completely clueless people, but in general everyone is clueless anyway. He won't chase forever. My inclination was to instant fold 6th, but then i saw his board, thought to myself that he prob has 2 live low cards under there and thus a 9 low. Does that make it a good spot to represent an 8 low? I thought about it for quite a while, as though i was trying to actually figure out where i stand and also to give HIM a chance to realize that his 9 might be behind. I don't really have a read but he seemed somewhat decent. Although his call on 3rd is already so bad.

Furthermore, is calling 4th horrible? And is there even such a thing as bluffing in Razz? I just see playing each others boards, valuebetting when you have the best of it, and sometimes raising with the currently weakest hand as long as you have the best draw. Is that all there is to Razz?

Thanks for any input, I am kinda new to the game.

[MarkGritter]

You should ask on the Stud forum, most Razz posts go there.

Calling on 4th is not a good habit to get into. Although you may have a decent hot + cold equity, you may get tempted to call on 5th for a bigger bet and worse odds.

In this case you're a dead heat against something awful like 6897 but a 60/40 dog to A297. (And 65/35 if he has the case 5.)

Of course it is possible to bluff in Razz. There are a couple problems with your semi-bluff/river bet here, though. When you catch the 9 on the river you might well have the best hand. If Villain has a 987 or not even a 9 then you are not bluffing at all.

Also if villain really does have a 97 he has a fairly good draw to "beat" your represented 8 on the river (2's, 4's, 6's are completely live, 3s mostly live--- he probably has two on this list rather than a 5 so he has 7-8 "outs") and will certainly call if he makes it.

So: the 6th street semibluff is unlikely to pick up the pot and the 7th street bet is unlikely to drive a better hand out of the pot. Semibluff with a stronger draw and bluff with worse hands.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
Although you may have a decent hot + cold equity, you may get tempted to call on 5th for a bigger bet and worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is a 1.2:1 dog at best. Fold that crap on 4th street. Although the pot is laying you better odds its not worth calling.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[MarkGritter]

Au contraire. People call with all sorts of crap. If Villain has an 8 down then Hero is no worse than 47%:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2311270
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2311301
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2311297

And of course Villain may have paired 7s. What you mean (I assume) is that against Villain's likely range we are a 1.2:1 dog, which I am willing to believe.

[BBB]

The semibluff on 6th won't work because villain can surmise that we have an 8 in the hole when we don't bet 5th.

As for 4th, I think it might be a close decision. There's a dead 8 and two dead 5's, and the cards we need are completely live (save for the two that villain presumably holds, one of which may or may not be a 3).

I decided to try to determine whether a call is worth it or not. (I'm somewhat fascinated by these types of decisions in Razz, which are different from other poker games, as you can't exactly count "outs".)

If we're getting 4-1 on 4th, that means we'd be getting 10-7 total odds if villain bet every street and we called every street. When villain has A2 in the hole (basically a worst case scenario, save for when he has the case 5), we're about 38% to win. Paying 7 to win 10 on a 38% shot is a loss of 0.54 small bets. So we probably wouldn't want to call on 4th if it comitted us to the river. But, if we can make good folds often enough to recoup those 0.54 small bets, then a call may be worthwhile.

Assuming that villain has two of our "outs" in the hole, that leaves 17 of 38 cards we could catch on 5th that would pretty much force us to at least see the river. But, if we catch one of these cards, then even if villain catches well, we're still typically about 38% to win the hand. Any of the other cards and we have an easy fold (although we might get a free look at 6th if we catch an 8 or a 3 and villain catches bad). And, if we catch and villain bricks, we become typically roughly a 65% favorite from there on out.

So, if we call on 4th, there is roughly a 45% chance that we'll catch goood on 5th, about a 6% chance that we'll double-pair but get a free look at 6th, and about a 50% chance that we'll fold. When we catch good on 5th, we'll probably have about 52% equity, on average. 52%*45%=23.4%.

So, even ignoring the times we get a free card on 6th, on 4th, we're getting 4-1 to call, and our "effective equity" is at least 23.4%, or about 3.3-1. Plus, those times when we do see the river, I think we'll be more likely to win a bet than to lose one. (Note: 4-1 assumes we'll pay a rake of 0.2 SBs when we win. If the rake were likely to be $1, on the other hand, we'd only be getting 3.2-1. But, our river advantage still could make it a narrowly +EV call.)

I think it's a close decision, but I think in actuality 4th is worth a call here. But, it's certainly possible I've overlooked something.