silentbob's NBA modified "chase" system

[silentbob]

I know there was a thread last month about the NHL chase system that folks are doing on TheRX. And I definitely understand the valid criticisms of what is more or less a blind Martingale.

What I'm throwing out there is not completely blind and based on two premises:

1) The Eastern Conference teams still suck relative to their counterparts in the West
2) West coast/Texas swings are more draining than east coast road trips

What I plan to do is "chase" 1 unit by fading on the moneyline any Eastern Conference team that's on a road trip of 3 or more games provided that at least two of the games are against Western Conference opponents.

Potential exceptions to the system:

1) Two of the weakest teams in the West are Portland and Seattle. I haven't looked at this year's schedules yet, but to the extent that there are three-game road trips where two of the games are against the Blazers and Sonics, I'll pass on betting the system here.

2) If an Eastern Conference team looks like they're gonna win 60ish games, I'll pass on their road trips. At the risk of sounding results-oriented, from what I can tell, only one East team has swept a West Coast trip during the last three years -- Detroit swept Sacramento, Phoenix, and Portland early last season. For this reason, I'm gonna wait about 20 games before blindly fading teams like New Jersey, Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago (likely the top 4 in the East this year).

Bottom line is that most Eastern Conference teams have only two of these trips a season, so this isn't gonna be a big-time system anyway. Don't tail me if you're actually looking to make the big monies. I'm simply gunning for 20-25 units. Given the inherent gamboooool of a chase system, I'm also using a much smaller unit total than usual.

One other risk, from what I can tell, is that some of the moneylines can be pretty hefty in the NBA (approaching -300 to -400). My guess is that in these instances, it would be games played in San Antonio, Dallas, or Phoenix. At this point, I just don't see any Eastern Conference team going through a southwestern swing undefeated. It hasn't happened in a very long time. And if such a team potentially emerges from the East, I'll pass when they go out west.

Comments welcome, especially if you can think of potential refinements. Feel free to dissuade me as well. If there are any other flaws/risks in the system that I haven't identified already, I'd like to know.