Is it simply variance?

[phodphod]

Below I'm giving an update to my previous post. Since its no longer available I've copied it below before giving an update. I sincerely appreciate the comments it received.

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I just attempted to move up in limit with zero success and I would like some advice:

Played 8000 hands at micro 0.01/0.02 NL Hold'EM 6-max
VP$IP=26%
BB/100=23
Won$SD=57%

I actually played 1cent/2cent for 3 or 4 months before getting poker tracker so I don't have all my play databased. I won $75 on the above 8000 hands but made roughly $400 before I got PTracker playing same 6-max 1c/2c tables.

So I figured I would give 0.02/0.05 NL Hold'EM 6-max a shot.
4700 hands
VP$IP=26%
BB/100=(5) (negative 5)
Won$ at SD = 51%
Lost $24

So I have since dropped back down to regain some confidence but i'm curious about the drastic difference in the bottom line and if it may be just a bad run of cards.

I can provide other stats if that is helpful but looking at the ring game stat summaries they appear pretty comparable (although I'm pretty new to PTracker and all the stats.) I also felt like I was playing the same sort of game.

Should i give it more time at 2c/5c after regaining some confidence or do I need to change my game drastically before i try to move up again?

Thanks for any advice.

No need to reply saying I suck because I'm aware of that if I can't beat micro 2c/5c

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THE UPDATE:

i've been using PT w/ GT+ and while i'm still learning to use it, it has helped me avoid the rocks and raise the seats with very high VP$IP when they come into a hand particularly when multi-tabling when I can't always pay close enough attention (3 to 4 tables is my speed)

I recovered what I had lost at 2c/5c NL 6-max and I am now dead even with a total of 7300 hands played at that level.

I have since played 3100 hands at 5c/10c NL 6-max and have managed +2.9BB/100 so i'm ok with that.

My recent problem is back at 1c/2c NL 6-max where my dentist WAS getting angry with me since so much shuga (Joe H.) was being passed my way--relatively speaking, it is micro after all. Now over the last 50 sessions (5300 hands) i'm losing almost 8BB/100 (~$32...32x the min buyin, 5.5x the max buyin) and its getting to me. My VP$IP is 23% compared to table averages of 40% and higher with some players >70%...i figure when i do play a hand that my average hand strength should be greater than my opponent and I should be catching them in spots when I have stuff like AK or KQ vs their holding of KT or K9o and we flop top pair; but it seems they flop or river 2p or a weired flush or strt on me a lot or I miss the flop and they hit their T or 9.

I've had pkt AA 23 times, WtSD only 8x vs holdings where I was on average almost an 85% preflop favorite but I realized only 75% W$SD. I've had pkt KK 26 times, WtSD only 11x vs holdings where I was on average a 76% preflop favorite but I only realized 63% W$SD; on the 4 KK hands I lost I was on average a 86% preflop favorite vs (J3o, 88, K2s, 93o). I dont even want to talk about QQ.

Regarding a flopped 4 flush or 4 strt and completing...i'm not sure how many draws one could miss (current PT version can't filter for this as far as i know) but i guess its possible to never complete a draw ever again; i know i should expect to miss 7 outta 10 or so but when i miss 20 or 30 in a row (including strt+flush draw spots) it gets really frustrating.

And then it feels like i'm running in a very weird card space where I wont flop a pair or even a draw for a long long time (30 to 40 hands)and if i do its bottom pair facing a 3 strt + 3 flush textured board; then many more blank hands until BAM, flop a house and get no action if i bet out and no action if i slow play to allow someone to catch something, then many many hands of nothing until i flop top set vs my opponents nut strt, or set over set. And during this period of flopping nothing i pick up pkt AA or KK and lose more often than i think i should.

HOW DO YOU DEAL/HANDLE THE COLD SPELLS WHEN IT SEEMS LIKE NOTHING GOES RIGHT WITH THE BIG POTS?

I tried a few $5 SNG tournaments since 1c/2c rings where not working for me...i swear the tourney card server runs different than the ring game server; as i sit there and fold a lot in the early going playing 10 to 15% of hands i watch as my opponents continually make "made" 5 card hand after 5 card hand (strts, flushes, houses) and pick up seeming endless supplies of pkt AA, KK, QQ while if i pick up K8s its a miracle. I see the showdowns and see if I didn't muck preflop if i would have won a hand and I never seem to be delt a winning hand. It also seems like there is always one golden seat that has the best hand at showdown regardless of what they play yet if i play my overpair to the flop, or play my flopped set, i'm beat every time.

I am a losing tourny player so far after 40 tournaments i'm -23% ROI.

Despite my rantings on my low limit ring play i've not had a losing month yet but riding out the cold spells is really tuff for me. Its not the $ as i can afford to risk and lose 100x more without any problem, its just like a big game to me trying to grow the roll.

Thanks for listening to my frustration; I know its difficult to comment without specific hand postings and who really cares about micro play anyway but I do know if I can't beat micro i had better not move too far up and I dislike prolonged negatively sloped sections in my BR vs time plots.

[redlotus]

It sounds like you're having the same type of month I'm having. I've been lucky in that I'm still working off a deposit bonus, which has greatly softened the blow.

Unfortunately, there's not much either of us can do. We just have to keep playing good poker and hope that variance cycles back into upswing mode. Maybe a break for a couple of days will help you come back fresh and relaxed. Personally, I've been playing several freeroll donkaments to try and blow off some steam.

I will suggest that you forget what your hole cards are after you muck them pre-flop. By keeping track of what you would've hit will only drive you insane and it may lead to being sucked into the trap of donk-thinking "ATC can win, so I'll just limp every hand." This thinking will only ruin your game (especially if it works at first).

Anyway, sorry I can't be more help.

-red

[RyverRat]

have you tried tightening up at the cash tables ? vpip 26% seems high fir the micro levels.

There is a lot of negative thoughts above and this could channel down into your play when at the tables. At the end of each session take your big losing hands or some tricky situation hands and use pokerstove to see if you had the money in ahead. If it turns out that you are consistantly ahead when the money goes in but you are suffering bad beats, pat yourself on the back and nod at the variance devil.

Also keep in mind tourny's and cash play different. they could be having a bad effect on the other game.

[phodphod]

I rarely have anyone lower VP$IP than me at the table--I don't fully appreciate if thats good or bad. They seem to average anywhere from 25 to as high as 70 VP$IP and if i see someone in the 10 to 12% VP$IP I just dont play a hand w/ them unless i'm premium or attempting to stack them if I can see the flop cheap and set up with a pp.

I agree, 26 is probably a little high vp$ip. Over my last 50 1c/2c 6-max sessions my VPIP was actually 23 on average and varied from a high of 36% to a low of 12% with 20 of the sessions falling at or below 21%.

My biggest losing position (by far) is in the SB, i for sure need to muck more often even if its the minimum price. The hardest part is it always seems like good odds to complete the small blind. JJ, TT, and AQs are among my top 5 biggest losers from the SB.

I also agree on your "negative thoughts" read but i'm not sure how/if my play is being affected. I think if anything i tend to fold more often post-flop to the aggressor simply thinking that there is no way i'm good in this spot after i get it wrong at showdown on multiple occasions. That being said, i have no idea if i'm folding winners or losers on those occasions. Theoretically i should have a winning hand at showdown 1/6th (~17%) of all hands delt at a 6-max (even greater if only 4 or 5 are seated) so I know I must be folding winners very often.

[RyverRat]

At those levels it is a good thing to have to lowest $vpip at the table. this means when you are playing a hand you are more than likely ahead of villains range.

This is good but you have to be aggressive. No tricky play at these levels.. you get JJ in the small blind with 4 limpers trying betting large, bet all in maybe. you will probably get a caller, if not you will pick up 4bb. This doesnt work as you progress the levels but it will down here.

I still say $vpip of 26% is too high for these levels. pokerstove shows 26% range as 55+ any Axs A7o+ 810s+

Are you playing these ranges ? if so how ? What is your pfr% ?

The lower end of this range shouldnt be played at this level.

from your last comment about folder to the post flop aggressor, you should have the lead here. If you led pf then you should be in position and leading post flop. you need to be the one in control of the betting and if you are doing this with a low $vpip then you should be ahead more times than not.

position, position, position. tighten up the UTG,UTG+1 and dont loosen too much on the button. This does change as you move up the game levels but here TAG ABC poker is the way forward.

You sound like you have a good graps of the fundamentals, way more than the bad players at your level. keep with it.

[phodphod]

Well I played another session (~1300 hands) last night at 1c/2c 6-max and more of the same. I really tried to keep my VP$IP much tighter and I really tried to play TAG yet i still lost pretty big on the session. I had AA cracked HU after K2o on the BTN called my 10xBB preflop (he was 70 VP$IP so I had a hard time giving him credit for trip Ks) I did not double him and managed to keep the pot reasonable. I flopped a set of Js twice during this session, both times my opponents flopped strts and both times i felted. I correctly layed the 2nd nutz once (opponent showed) which was nice.

I don't have a website so I cannot post images, I would REALLY like to have someone with more experience review my stats for the session to see if anything is glaringly donkish. I can e-mail the data.

I'm really getting frustrated with my current downswing. I had been a steady winner grinding out 500 @ 1c/2c before I got PT and another 150 since but now I cannot seem to win a big hand. Maybe the downswing in my "bank roll vs number of hands played" is normal, I dont really know, so i'm looking for an opinion on that as well.

If you are willing to have a gander I would appreciate it; I may even transfer u something if you are on pstars.




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[mattw]

there are ways to post graphs, images, etc in 2+2 but i dont how. a search on this site may be helpful. the word photobucket comes to mind. the forum computer technical help may be also helpful.

[phodphod]

I did search, images have to be linked from a URL...i dont have a website which is why i wanted to e-mail someone more experienced than i some of my stats.