TPTK: Value-bet this flush river?

[FoldEqu1ty]

Only 30 hands on villain, he is running at 40/20 fwiw. I know this hand is a perfect example of CAterps "showdown tax", but I'm not pushing here if just for metagame, as I don't think the variance is worth the slim reward at these already loose-and-donkish tables, which break up every 10 minutes anyway. Do you think a shove here is +EV outright? Considerably or marginally?



Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $139.03
BB: $94.00
UTG: $100.00
MP: $119.91
CO: $85.33
Hero (BTN): $100.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.00</font>, SB calls $4.50, BB folds, CO calls $4.00

Flop: ($16) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, SB folds, CO calls $12.00

Turn: ($40) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $30.00</font>, CO calls $30.00

River: ($100) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks

[Jamougha]

wtf are you talking about. what else would you do but shove?

[FoldEqu1ty]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf are you talking about. what else would you do but shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Open fold????

[FoldEqu1ty]

Note the SD got there on the turn as well.

[Jamougha]

He doesn't have the flush very often bc it's backdoor, the str8 is possible but still unlikely. [censored] you were telling me the other day how 100NL donks never fold anything, ever, and now you want to check behind tptk? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[FoldEqu1ty]

[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't have the flush very often bc it's backdoor, the str8 is possible but still unlikely. [censored] you were telling me the other day how 100NL donks never fold anything, ever, and now you want to check behind tptk? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he's basically an unknown, the others were confirmed donks over 100's of hands.

[FoldEqu1ty]

Also I realise how dumb this looks, in fact having another look at the HH it seems 100x dumber to even be asking this.... but his flat-call on turn with soooooo many draws for that amount of money really confused the crap out of me. I couldn't think wtf he could call with that doesnt just CRAI the turn.

[Syntec87]

really really easy shove...

[Sphere99991]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf are you talking about. what else would you do but shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, basically. Also, PartyPoker doesn't have rake anymore?? Goddamnit, I wish I wasn't in the US sometimes.

[Bode-ist]

could be a donked up set? i give zero credit to unknowns though, so i push all day.