Flop Top 2 Against a Regular in raised pot

[Osprey]

Raiser is 46/11/2.11 over 100 hands
Main antagonist is 15/ 12/ 3 over many hands.
Willing to felt it beating aces?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($465.10)
SB ($510.65)
Hero ($238.70)
UTG ($197.35)
UTG+1 ($128.15)
MP1 ($205)
MP2 ($44)
MP3 ($253.90)
CO ($160)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $5, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($20) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $48</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $504.65</font>, Hero....

[raistlinx]

Looks like SB has a set to me. I can't see anything else he plays this way unless he's gone nuts.

I can't call his push.

[Jurrr]

Set or a big draw. I think it's a fold as villain's stats are good.

12,870 games 0.005 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Qs 4s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.182% 78.18% 00.00% 10062 0.00 { 44, KsTs, QJs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, QJo }
Hand 1: 21.818% 21.82% 00.00% 2808 0.00 { AcJc }

[threads13]

How likely is it that the SB is on a draw?

[Fonkey123]

[ QUOTE ]
Set or a big draw. I think it's a fold as villain's stats are good.

12,870 games 0.005 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Qs 4s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.182% 78.18% 00.00% 10062 0.00 { 44, KsTs, QJs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, QJo }
Hand 1: 21.818% 21.82% 00.00% 2808 0.00 { AcJc }

[/ QUOTE ]

Except for the fact OP has QJ not AJ.

[Jurrr]

Sorry.

Board: Qs 4s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.502% 39.73% 17.77% 4327 1935.00 { 44, KsTs, QJs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, QJo }
Hand 1: 42.498% 24.73% 17.77% 2693 1935.00 { QcJc }

Probably still a fold as many of those hands that you have the best equity against will fold preflop.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry.

Board: Qs 4s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.502% 39.73% 17.77% 4327 1935.00 { 44, KsTs, QJs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, QJo }
Hand 1: 42.498% 24.73% 17.77% 2693 1935.00 { QcJc }

Probably still a fold as many of those hands that you have the best equity against will fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Throw AsJs in his range also. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SretiCentV]

I think a 46/11 definitely has J4 and Q4 in his range. QQ/JJ would have reraised pf. Only thing that beats you is 44 and you have outs against that. I can't fold here

[Jurrr]

It's not the 46/11 we're up against I think. I'd snapcall a 46/11.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a 46/11 definitely has J4 and Q4 in his range. QQ/JJ would have reraised pf. Only thing that beats you is 44 and you have outs against that. I can't fold here

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't completely discount QQ/JJ. THere are lots of people with his stats that won't 3bet anything but AA/KK