Advanced Wolf Strategy

[soah]

The sticky has threads for beginner wolf and villager strategy, so I decided to go a step further.

First of all, what is your goal as a wolf? For a long time I thought that the goal of a wolf is to act exactly the same as I would as a villager. I usually did a pretty good job of sounding villagery at the start of the game, but I was losing most of my wolf games because playing to sound like a villager isn't the way to win.

To win a game as a wolf you need to get X villagers lynched. This is what everything comes down to in the end. Finding X is pretty easy. First you see how many lynches the village gets - divide the total number of players by 2 and round down. Village must lynch all wolves to win, so subtract the number of wolves. The number you are left with is the number of mistakes the village can make and still win. Your target is to get one more mistake than what they can make. This is X. In a 9 player turbo, X is 3. As a general rule of thumb, a village is allowed one mislynch for each wolf that is in the game.

So why is it that simply trying to play like a villager won't work? Because playing like a villager doesn't always get X villagers lynched. Sometimes you have the power to decide whether someone lives or dies, especially when the number of players in the game is small. You can argue to save them, or you can argue to lynch them, and the village opinions are mixed enough that what you choose is what will end up happening. In situations like this, you should not save the villager simply because that's what you would do if you were a villager. Getting that villager lynched counts towards X, and that is what matters. Going back to the general rule of thumb, a village can afford one mislynch for each wolf in the game... so if each wolf is able to get two villagers lynched before getting himself lynched, the wolves will win.

Another reason that you should not simply try to mimic your villager game is that even when you are a villager, you probably get lynched somewhat often. Most people aren't that good at telling apart your wolf game from your villager game. Villages often do stupid things. Take advantage of this by playing the way the villagers expect villagers to play, even if it's not what you would do in those specific spots as a villager.

Now, this is not to say that you should try to act different than usual... you obviously need people to think you are a villager, or you will get lynched. But the point of this is that acting like a villager is a method that you use to get X villagers lynched. Acting like a villager just for the sake of acting like a villager without a plan will not go very far.

As you get deep into the game, sometimes you must stray far from your usual game. I've been burned sometimes by getting to must-lynch and then trying to pretend I'm a villager and make honest assessments about the remaining players. You can't do this. Your goal here is to get that final villager lynched. If there's a villager that's totally misguided, just give them the chance to screw it up. As long as you get that one person to screw up, it doesn't matter if the guy you're lynching plus every single dead player realizes you're a wolf. It's too late for them. It's the results that matter. Play for the results.

And how about the topic of confirmed/clear villagers? These are absolutely your enemy as a wolf. You are greatly limited in how many players you can eat at night. If you can't get rid of the clear villagers by endgame, then you will almost certainly lose. No matter how good of a job you do of getting people to think you are a villager, you can do nothing to prevent other people from being seen as being even more clear than you. Again, this ties into your goal of getting X villagers lynched. For each villager left in the game, you can eat some of them, one will be alive at the end, and the rest must get lynched for you to win.

As a wolf, you have the power to limit the number of cleared villagers there are. Your night kills are very important. Find the seer immediately. If you aren't sure about the seer, kill people who are likely to have already been peeked, people that are very unlikely to be lynched, and people whose death will seem to incriminate someone else who wasn't previously in danger of being lynched.

The night kill stuff is pretty obvious, but even more important are your actions. Some villagers will end up clearing themselves because of things they say about one of the wolves, but many more villagers are cleared by the things that wolves say about them. Part of your wolf metagame should be to include fellow wolves amongst your suspects. You don't actually want to get them lynched most of the time, but you need to make sure that after you die, the village can't look back and immediately clear all of the people that you tried to get lynched. Ideally you would like to push for people that aren't in any immediate danger of being lynched, so that it seems like a spot where you could safely push for a wolf, and people that are highly likely to get lynched, so that they will die before you do. This leaves the village with very little information after they learn your role.

And while you can clear people by gunning for them too hard, you can also clear people by insisting too heavily that they are a villager. Most wolves are aware of how much heat they will take by heavily defending a wolf, and won't do it. You are going to have to post some villager lists at some point in order to fit in and not get yourself lynched, but be careful about how you do it. Now, I'm not saying that you should definitely not single someone out as being a definite villager in a manner that will clear them - but be aware that once you do that, it will be exceedingly hard for them to be lynched. You will be stuck defending them the rest of the game, and if you die before them then your interactions will be seen as wolf-villager. So the key here is to only do that with people that you were probably going to nightkill anyway. That way you don't give up anything.

In the same way that you can clear people by having wolf-villager interactions with them, you can also set people up by faking wolf-wolf interactions. As a wolf, it is nearly always correct to virtually ignore several of the players in the game. If they are ignoring you, it's even better. If there are two villagers getting bandwagoned, don't act ambivalent. Pick one of them and make a case for them being a wolf. Ignore the other or act non-committal. After your death, your silence will incriminate that player if they are still alive.

Once you take all of this stuff into account, it's time to make a plan. I've spoken in generalities, but when you're playing in a game you have to be specific about it. Figure out what X is in your game. Figure out who each of those villagers will be that get lynched.

As a wolf, you have an enormous advantage in that you can see the future. You know that the guy gunning hard for several wolves is likely to seem extremely clear later. You know who is going to look very clear later because a bunch of wolves are pushing his wagon. Can you get those guys lynched BEFORE the wolves get lynched? Order here is vital. If getting them lynched is out of the question, then find a reason to add them to your villager list. If someone is dropping clear seer hints and you're planning to eat him, go ahead and piggyback off of his reads first (add his peeked villagers to your villager list, try to get his peeked wolf lynched). Villagers are results-oriented, and "being right" about a lot of things before it becomes public consensus will keep heat off of you for a long time. And being right about these things doesn't cost you anything because the village was going to figure it out on its own eventually anyway. You pretty much earn villager points for free.

Sometimes, seeing the future tells you that you aren't going to be able to live until the end. Once you make this realization, try to take out as many villagers as possible before you go down. Suppose that someone is about to be lynched and claims a power role. What would happen if you counterclaimed in that spot, when there is not much heat on you? You would certainly be believed and the power villager would be lynched. You have given your team an extra villager lynch for free, and given them an extra night kill to work with as well. This is worth far more to your team than staying alive for a couple more days. You may not get such an obvious opportunity as that, but remember the golden rule of getting villagers lynched. Don't jump on a fellow wolf's bandwagon unless it's very likely to clear you (this is often a transparent move), or if the wagon is likely to stall and you might help clear them after your role is revealed. (again, dangerous). The best thing to do is to just keep voting for villagers that are highly likely to be lynched. You know that people will be rereading your posts in the near future to glean information, so try to minimize how useful it is. Better yet, make it misleading. Incriminating someone so that they get lynched after you is just as good as getting them lynched ahead of you.

So, by seeing the future you can usually get a decent idea of who is getting lynched. From previous rounds, you can take a good guess at who will be lynched in the upcoming days, and you can see who that will clear and who that will incriminate. As you get closer to the end of the game, you will know how many villagers aren't clear, and how many are clear or will become clear by the end. Is the number of uncleared villagers greater than or equal to X? And will they all be lynched before the final wolf? If the answer is yes, then make sure you don't [censored] it up. Make sure you can close it out and actually get them all lynched. If one wolf is going down, he needs to make sure that he doesn't have wolf-villager interactions with one of the remaining suspects. Sometimes it is better to simply go down without a big fight if you are confident that your partner can win the game, and if by trying to save yourself you might end up incriminating your partner or clearing a villager. On the other hand, if it looks like you are going to lose the game, then you need to try something extreme. The worst that can happen is that whatever you try will fail... but if you don't try anything then you will lose anyway, so you have to try it. Do something completely over the top, either gunning for someone much much harder than it seems like you should, or emphatically stating that someone is a villager. If your antics cause any villager to change their mind about something, then you've given yourself a chance to win a game. Don't continue down a "standard" course of action that leaves you no way to win.

So, in summary, it's all about getting X villagers lynched. The goal isn't to look more villagery than everyone else, the goal is to make sure that everyone else looks more suspicious than you. If everyone seems villagery, the village will probably start lynching people that are known as being convincing wolves, which is probably bad for you unless it's your first good wolf game. Avoid nightkilling people that have a good shot at being lynched, and leave a trail of death (both day and night) that continues to incriminate more and more villagers. Some villagers are going to get themselves lynched even without your help, so as long as each wolf that goes down takes some type of action that takes out one additional villager with him, then the wolves win easily.

[lastchance]

I've only read half the post so far, and it is awesome.

Edit: Finished the entire post, and it's probably the best piece of public strategy I've seen on 2p2. Good as hell.

There's one thing I have a quibble on. If you're a wolf, don't figure out things too quickly and too soon. Being right is obviously villagery, but being right when there is no way in hell you should be right is very wolfy. If it's a reasonable conclusion to make, make it. But sometimes, wolves jump to the correct conclusion too fast. Do not give off the fact that you have inside information.

[FCBLComish]

Soah,

This was the most awesome post I have seen on 2+2. I hope it will improve my wolf game.

If only there were a site that did this for poker, that would really be great [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[LuckayLuck]

I already knew this, and more
Advanced Villager Strategy guide, please?


jopkejopke, this is a really good post. A really, really good post.
I may create a "Super-Advanced Wolf Strategy" post later. I think it's pretty clear that I'm a better wolf than I am a villager. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
HOWEVER, someone needs to create an ADVANCED VILLAGER STRATEGY post first.

Let's 2+2 up both our wolf and villager games together! Strategy study group! Gogo!

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
I've only read half the post so far, and it is awesome.

Edit: Finished the entire post, and it's probably the best piece of public strategy I've seen on 2p2. Good as hell.

There's one thing I have a quibble on. If you're a wolf, don't figure out things too quickly and too soon. Being right is obviously villagery, but being right when there is no way in hell you should be right is very wolfy. If it's a reasonable conclusion to make, make it. But sometimes, wolves jump to the correct conclusion too fast. Do not give off the fact that you have inside information.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assumed it goes without saying that you still need to have some justification for your actions. Making up stuff that sounds reasonable is part of "Beginning Wolf Strategy". =P

[lastchance]

Well, you don't really need justification. You just need to be able to know if that conclusion is reasonably make-able from a villager perspective (for you).

If your actions make sense, well, obviously, you don't need to justify it.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
I already knew this, and more
Advanced Villager Strategy guide, please?


jopkejopke, this is a really good post. A really, really good post.
I may create a "Super-Advanced Wolf Strategy" post later. I think it's pretty clear that I'm a better wolf than I am a villager. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
HOWEVER, someone needs to create an ADVANCED VILLAGER STRATEGY post first.

Let's 2+2 up both our wolf and villager games together! Strategy study group! Gogo!

[/ QUOTE ]
Tomorrow, I might make a villager strategy post with you as a case study. I think you have a distinct villager game and a distinct wolf game, and you know this. Even so, I also don't think it's +EV for you to change your wolf game to match your villager game more (I think you also know this).

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you don't really need justification. You just need to be able to know if that conclusion is reasonably make-able from a villager perspective (for you).

If your actions make sense, well, obviously, you don't need to justify it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villagers often reach illogical conclusions. If someone has no heat you can generally call them a villager and not be questioned on it, unless they are notoriously hard to read or extremely UTR. But it's good to have a reason ready in case someone does ask about it (which would usually be out of curiosity rather than because they suspect you).

Also if someone has no heat then it obviously means that other people also find them villagery, or at least neutral, so it generally won't seem strange to have them on a villager list.

[chuckleslovakian]

My Advanced Wolf Strat:
Get drunk

[clowntable]

[ QUOTE ]
My Advanced Wolf Strat:
Get drunk

[/ QUOTE ]
That's my strategy. Of course I do it as villager as well to make it unexploitable [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]