Johnny Chan listed as favorite to win National Heads-Up

[tendog]

Looking at the list of players there does not seem to be a huge amount of dead money.

So in fairness the best player in that field is probably about 27 - 1 (double the average chance of winning.)

I suppose there are a few pros who dont play heads up well or wont play correctly with high blinds. It also looks like there are a few amateurs and celebs.

So all in all someone might be 23 to 1 to win but anything beyond that seems pretty unlikely.

[DCJ311]

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If he goes off at 23-1 I'll bet as much as I can on that one. That would be excellent value. Chan is still one of the best no limit hold'em players in the world. Heads up, he's even better than he is in ring games.

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It's the ability to spot the value in these types of wagers that makes Daniel Negreanu one of the most feared prop bettors amongst his peers.

[Black winter day]

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I doubt Chan even gets past the 3rd round. This might be seen as blasphemy, but I think he's pretty overrated and not anywhere near the dominant force he used to be.

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Chan is a weak-tight tourney donk.
I think he would be crashed online above Nl1000.

[tomtemor]

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Ill put my bankroll on Antonius

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[Degenerasian]

no mention of Hellmuth?
seems like he would be a sick HU player

[Kevmath]

Hellmuth's scheduled to appear at PartyPoker's Premier League Poker event (which starts today and runs thru March 4). If he doesn't make the top 8, he could fly back to Vegas in time for the NHUPC.

[tendog]

What do people think the best player in the field should be listed at?

I would guess there would be something like 10 - 15 elite players (very good poker players, very schooled in heads up maths.)

Probably another tier of 30 players who have an average to below average chance to win and another 5 - 10 players who probably dont have much of a shot?

Looking at it that way its still pretty hard to assume someone has a double the average chance of winning.

I was thinking someone like Chris Ferguson should be the favorite in an event like this as he is a top player and very mathamatical. Obviously, there are alot of similar players though who have played tons of heads up poker.

If they had fair lines (as opposed to the ones on Bodog, etc) I think Antonius would be pretty good value as he probably could be the best player in the field.

Is Chan really the best player at this foramt? I know he should be fairly high up there but i would think someone else should be the favorite?

[Thundercat32]

I've come to the conclusion made for TV poker is bad for poker. I much more enjoy watching lengthy "boring" poker shows like the WPT on the Travel channel or UPC poker on WGN. The only good aspect of made for TV poker is it brings new players into the poker pool who get taught the wrong way to play and it provides profits for more experienced players.

I doubt I'll learn anything from watching NBC's heads up poker though its so edited and spliced together and jumps around from table to table... how could you?

[tendog]

Yeah about the only thing TV poker is good for is entertainment. So the WSOP main event was about the only thing i watched closely in the last year.

Just think people are crazy or feel like wasting mooney if they bet anyone at 8 to 1. Even at 23 to 1 i probably would not bet on anyone.

[TheDudeAbides]

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Ill put my bankroll on Antonius

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Straight up to win it all? I'll take that bet right now. How much?