FT facing a significant overbet as the CL

jon_1van · #1 10-26-2007, 10:21 AM

I found this to be a somewhat odd spot. The villian was neither super tight nor Laggish. I won't say anything else about him because I want to see what people think of this spot in general.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB (t21200)
BB (t58472)
UTG (t82770)
Hero (t164494)
CO (t68272)
Button (t144792)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K

, Q

.
1 fold, Hero raises to t10000, CO raises to t16000, 3 folds, Hero calls t6000.

Flop: (t33600) 7

, J

, T

(2 players)</font>

CO bets bets 51872 and is all-in

Hero???

Final Pot: t33600

CobraGoat · #2 10-26-2007, 10:26 AM

Its annoying but i think its a pretty easy fold without a good read of villain making this sort of play in the past with air.

But really, you are way behind all of villains range, which is AJ+ 99+. Easy fold.

jon_1van · #3 10-26-2007, 10:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Its annoying but i think its a pretty easy fold without a good read of villain making this sort of play in the past with air.

But really, you are way behind all of villains range, which is AJ+ 99+. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You entertain no thoughts whatsoever of "win = HUGE / lose = still ok"???

CobraGoat · #4 10-26-2007, 10:41 AM

Im all about taking the slight worst of it in this situation but against villains range (run the numbers, its bad) you are not a slight dog you are just a dog. why risk the chiplead when you are so far behind his range, its just wreckless IMO.

KStV · #5 10-26-2007, 10:56 AM

I assume Hero checked the flop?

Pot is offering you 85,500:52,000 or about 1.6:1

OESD gives you 8 outs. Maybe give yourself another out on the chance he's got QQ and you hit a K? So with 9 outs twice, we're a 38:9 + 37:9 underdog to hit our hand, or just about 2:1.

So the odds aren't there, but with some kind of read (likes to shove draws, but traps with big hands?) I might find a reason to call a bet that doesn't look like it wants to be called for a shot at almost 40Ms. But it would take convincing; you're not going to love your 16Ms if you whiff.

CobraGoat · #6 10-26-2007, 10:57 AM

tell me one hand villain might have that hero has minimum 50% equity against...i dare you.

jon_1van · #7 10-26-2007, 11:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
tell me one hand villain might have that hero has minimum 50% equity against...i dare you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't need 50% equity to call - 88,99,AJ,KQ,

Dunkman · #8 10-26-2007, 11:23 AM

We have to fold here, I mean first, you can take JJ and TT out of villain's range because he's not playing that [censored] like this. However, AK and AQ have us like 3:1, which honestly this looks quite a bit like, or AA or KK that saw the drawy board and got spooked. Anyway, you can fold now, we're in bad trouble a lot here, and only flipping in a couple best case scenarios.

Also, I'd argue that all of the hands we do decent against are much less likely 3bet candidates than the hands that have us crushed. I mean, we really think he's 3 betting from the CO with KQ, AJ, even 88 or 99? That would be very rare, I mean it would be one thing if we raised the button and he's in the blinds, but this is much different. I think this is a very easy fold.

Pokerfarian · #9 10-26-2007, 11:30 AM

Yeah you just can't do anything but fold here. Personally I think he turns up with KK/AA a LOT of the time here.

jon_1van · #10 10-26-2007, 11:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think he turns up with KK/AA a LOT of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

BTW, I posted this less as "Am I ahead / behind" and more as a "do you take a shot at getting 1/2 the chips in play"

Against QQ+ calling is about a 10k -EV mistake
KK+ is a ~16k mistake.

A wider range that might include a little AJ or AQ and 99/88 hands and you are very close to ~0 EV spot. A little wider and you are +2k to call a little narrower and you are -5k to call.....but who cares about ranges and EVs..thats very straight forward.