Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged

[Misja]

Asking how many hands we need for such a study is the wrong question. First we should ask what kind of checks we would like to do on the data. When we know that, then it can be calculated how many hands we need for those checks to give a statistically significant result.

For instance, some people say that they get sucked out too many times by people who go all-in. One possibility how a rigged site could try to accomplish that, is by filling up a possible straight - or flushdraw on the river in an all-in situation whereever that is possible and regardless of the hand of the all-in player.
This is easy to check and we would definitely not need millons of hands for that. A couple of hundred of relevant hands could already be enough to produce a significant result.

This was just an example, I am sure there are much more interesting checks to do.

[jukofyork]

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The biggest obstacle I see to this is that for people who believe the sites are fair there is no upside in working on this. The people who think the sites are rigged are too dense to do the math.

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QFT

[apefish]

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If you get the hands and get people to analyze them then I think all you will is a bunch of people arguine back and forth whether the data proves the cards are 'off' or not.


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This is pretty much what happened in the Absolute Poker threads.
Bog-down city.

[sheshbeshon]

OH - let me get it ....

you actually realy think that a site can be rigged ?
cause when i suggested that in early post i got bashed
all over the place ...

nice to see some people chage their mind from time to time

[Josem]

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you actually realy think that a site can be rigged ?

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Obviously it is possible.

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cause when i suggested that in early post i got bashed
all over the place ...

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Because you make stupid posts, with poor logic, create false facts, and provide no evidence to support them. Like, seriously, look through your posts and think critically about the crap that you spew.


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nice to see some people chage their mind from time to time

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???

[UptownExpress]

i can tell u right now that stars is rigged 100%.

ask lilholdem if u want a second opinion. there is no need to do any data analysis

[apefish]

If you were asking me this... I think there is a massive differentiation between the Absolute threads and the usual "poker is rigged" stuff that makes appearances.
Perhaps a better word to use for the Absolute stuff is "compromised".
I believe Absolute has been compromised in some way- whether from the inside or out.
What leads me to believe that is actual data and a strange convergence of happenings.

[HamishB]

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Asking how many hands we need for such a study is the wrong question. First we should ask what kind of checks we would like to do on the data.

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That's a good point. What are you wanting to check?

If you want to know if the cards come out of the deck in the right "odds" as they are meant to that would be easy enough to do sample size wise.
However if you wanted to make sure certain players weren't "Rigged" then that would almost be impossible because you would never get a large enough sample size (unless they were silly enough to upload their HHs)

If someone was really worried about a person/group having all this "important" data then you'd just need to obscure the information before sending it The players names aren't important. So someone can write a really simple program that just replaces player names with UTG UTG+1 SB BB etc. People then run their hand histories through that parser. Then upload it to the central database.. Really does player names matter?
All you want is one HH file of every hand ever played that's gone to showdown right? people seem to usually complain about the showdown riggedness when there hand doesn't hold up. All of this information is available when observed.

[Josem]

the difference is that the Absolute Poker allegations are based upon credible evidence.


the morons in here who claim that online poker is rigged - without providing evidence - have no credibility.

[razarcrius]

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the difference is that the Absolute Poker allegations are based upon credible evidence.


the morons in here who claim that online poker is rigged - without providing evidence - have no credibility.

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The only moron here is you, Aussie.