an old raising the turn post

[knockonwood]

I spent the afternoon at work going over this old post and im still not satisfied that i understand all of shillix's comments.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (8.75 BB) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

I couldn't get the link to work so I'll paste shillix's comments.
These are the types of posts that I enjoy since they are pure theory. First off, let me say that your turn and river play is bad. In order to make a raise on the turn, one or more of the following must be true...

1) The raise is for value -- While this might or might not be the case here, if we are raising the turn for value we need to bet the river for value as well.

2) The raise is to get a hand to fold that shouldn't fold if they know what we have -- This isn't the case here either. The raise has to be able to get a better hand to fold (like QJ) or it has to make hands like QT (that have tons of outs) go away. Note that it doesn't have to work anywhere near 100% of the time to make it correct. In this case, no better hand will ever fold and it is very doubtful that he holds a hand worthy of folding that has tons of outs against us. This raise tends to work better in big pots where wrong folds can be very costly.
So if you raise the turn with both Jx and Ax it will cause havok for your opponent. If he has something like a pair of 8's, it puts him in a very tough spot since you are playing as game theory would suggest. If he folds, he is sometimes tossing in the best hand. If he calls, he is oftentimes paying you off. The key to this play is that you have to bet the river when you have Jx (and then sometimes bet the river when you have nothing). By checking the river, you make it much easier for him since he is essentially risking one more BB to win 7.75 BB. By betting the river you charge him 2 to win 8.75 when you have the best hand, and you oftentimes don't have to put in that last best when you bust since you are last to act. As you played it, it becomes far more correct for him to call the turn raise since you will give him a free showdown.

Brad

Now, the part that is not sinking in is: The key to this play is that you have to bet the river when you have Jx (and then sometimes bet the river when you have nothing). By checking the river, you make it much easier for him since he is essentially risking one more BB to win 7.75 BB. By betting the river you charge him 2 to win 8.75 when you have the best hand, and you oftentimes don't have to put in that last best when you bust since you are last to act. As you played it, it becomes far more correct for him to call the turn raise since you will give him a free showdown.

Can anybody, maybe Shillix [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] elaborate on this part for me?

Are we talking about betting the river with ANY card that falls?

[Ampelmann]

I don't know about the turn raise. We are HU against a guy that bet twice into a big field on a board where the only strong draw is T9. That means he has TP often here, I don't think that many people would bet the OESD again on the turn, so we can discount T9 a bit. I doubt many people he would bet QT again on the turn (and not many people would bet that on the flop).

I think the only worse hands calling our flop raise he might have is T9 and a worse J, and how often does he have a worse J here when he limps in EP? (Any reads?)

So I doubt the turn raise is for value, I just call. If there's another caller the situation might be different.

As played, I don't bet the river. He'll usually fold if he really had T9 and he'll call with a better J. Unless, of course, I have a read that he's a donk and overplays like middle pair, in which case the river is an easy value bet.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

wtf bet the river

[Ampelmann]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf bet the river

[/ QUOTE ]
Could you elaborate? What can he hold here that bets flop and turn, and calls a raise?

Of course, it's hard to say without a read. But have a guess.

[fretelöo]

OP,

I think it's quite simple, in essence. If you raise the turn and check the river, you charge 2bb. If you just call the turn and call the river, you also "charge" 2 bb. So while that raise might be for value, it also opens you up for a 3bet. So there's a risk associated with the riase that you have to "justify". And once you check the river, that justification is obv. not value because you'd have to have bet the river again.

So, in short, if you raise the turn, you do so because you think you have equity to do so - but then your opponents indeed have to have to pay more than just ordinarily by c/calling down. Otherwise you just risk more for the same return.

[Chino987]

i would raise the turn if there were others yet to act behind me so I increase my chances of winning and possibly fold out better hands.

with no one behind you to worry about all you're doing is folding out worse hands and charging yourself more if you're behind.

[robsmith82]

[ QUOTE ]

1) The raise is for value -- While this might or might not be the case here, if we are raising the turn for value we need to bet the river for value as well.



[/ QUOTE ]

How is this true? You have a lot of equity on the turn with the outs to the flush and top pair... isnt this a clear value raise? When UI on the river, there is no reason to bet as its very unlikely a worse hand will call you.

Whats wrong with this logic?

[Ampelmann]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

1) The raise is for value -- While this might or might not be the case here, if we are raising the turn for value we need to bet the river for value as well.


[/ QUOTE ]
How is this true? You have a lot of equity on the turn with the outs to the flush and top pair... isnt this a clear value raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops, I missed the FD. However, against a J we're <50% to win, so if we know we're against a J and we know he'll call our raise, it's not for value. It has added value as a semi-bluff, though imo. So now I like the raise. And I check behind on the river.

[robsmith82]

good stuff, thought my logic had gone out the window there... Yeah its also a semibluff, just didnt explain it well enough, plus you should make one more bet on the river if you make your flush, and its not certain your against a better jack.

[bozlax]

Everybody's missing Shill's point. He's not saying OP should or should not have raised the turn; he's saying that IF you're going to raise the turn you also need to bet the river when checked to.

Since the hand is HU when the action gets to Hero on the turn, he'd need > 24 outs to improve for the raise to be for drawing value. So, if we're raising for value, it's for best-hand value. If we have the best hand on the turn, the river card needs to improve Villan to a better hand > 50% of the time for a bet on the river to not be similarly for value. This is all, of course, based on having a read that Villan doesn't do [censored] [censored] like smooth-call a turn raise with TPTK so that he can c/r the river.

Shill complicated the matter somewhat by including commentary about metagame play, to-wit: You should also be raising this turn on a semi-bluff with hands like BPTK and nut-flush draws, and following up with a bet on the river to put your opponent off his reads. This really doesn't apply to micro games as a) your opponents aren't usually paying any attention to what you do, and b) your oppoenents aren't usually able to fold hands like 2nd pair. This is a bit of a tautology, of course, as any opponent that IS paying attention, is ALSO likely to be able to fold 2nd pair, it's just that finding such a Villan in a micro game is rare.