NLCASH $100 deep, good turn, bad river

[youcanhaveitall]

[ QUOTE ]
b/f seems best on the river. i think most players get it in on the turn with 2pair+.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really respect your play and IMO you are one of the better 2-4 regulars (so many are horrible on FTP). I am curious as to why you like the riverbet against this villian, putting us in a tough spot if he RR us.

If we check we can induce a lof of bluffs from hand we have beaten, and save some money against the flush.

Another line could be to make a weak blockerbet and call an AI overshove. Depends on how weak hands you can get him to induce bluffs with.

Regards, youcan

[RicherThanRichie]

Any read regaurding how he plays his draws on the turn? Will he check them thru sometimes or does he always double barrel them? Would he 3-bet a made hand on the turn here?
Is there any chance he is good enough/he thinks he can rule out you having a flush given your line?


This is obviously a tough spot and extreamly villain dependant. Given your read of he wont bluff here I guess my default would be fold (it just seems like a really weird spot to value shove a worse hand) but I could easily be persuaded to call if given a read (If he would play 2 pair like this I think you have to call)

[sc000t]

6c9c

[whaahhahahah]

there are a ton of hands that will call that turn raise that also have showdown value (mostly pair+ straight draw), so i think if we check he'll prob check behind.

i think people are being results oriented about the bet on the river. i don't mean whether he had the flush or not, but rather about us getting raised. we're just not getting raised here that often.

i think the weak lead could be more profitable, but it has to be v a certain type of player (mainly someone who would turn a hand that has showdown value into a bluff).

[Ellsworth T]

The thing I would like to focus on is his flop bet. Is a flush draw really over betting pot here? This is obv player dependent and you probably had a strong feel for what this meant. IMO on average, these kinds of overbets on the flop are more indicative of a strong MADE hand rather than draws, though obv this might not be the case with this particular player.

Also, and this is a huge factor with bad players, many of them turn hands with showdown value into bluffs, i.e- a player raises the river with JJ on a board of AK556 when the action thus far has shown that you most likely have either an ace or king or nothing. Their play is a total bluff and they end up shoving the river. I think they inherently know they are beat and hope that you believe that they have AK or A5 this time, though when they have that hand they bet small and try and sucker you. Not sure if this is the same kind of villian but he could have AA here IMO.

You also have to give us some idea of your aggression level. Are you value betting lightly? Have you won a particularly big pot recently with what could have easily been a bluff in his view? If you are VB lightly or have been overly aggro recently , I see no reason why this cannot be a dark tunnel bluff. Given my aggressive style, I think that I would have to call this river.

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing I would like to focus on is his flop bet. Is a flush draw really over betting pot here? This is obv player dependent and you probably had a strong feel for what this meant. IMO on average, these kinds of overbets on the flop are more indicative of a strong MADE hand rather than draws, though obv this might not be the case with this particular player.

Also, and this is a huge factor with bad players, many of them turn hands with showdown value into bluffs, i.e- a player raises the river with JJ on a board of AK556 when the action thus far has shown that you most likely have either an ace or king or nothing. Their play is a total bluff and they end up shoving the river. I think they inherently know they are beat and hope that you believe that they have AK or A5 this time, though when they have that hand they bet small and try and sucker you. Not sure if this is the same kind of villian but he could have AA here IMO.

You also have to give us some idea of your aggression level. Are you value betting lightly? Have you won a particularly big pot recently with what could have easily been a bluff in his view? If you are VB lightly or have been overly aggro recently , I see no reason why this cannot be a dark tunnel bluff. Given my aggressive style, I think that I would have to call this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ellsworth, I think you nailed it.

Results: <font color="white"> I called, villain had Q7os </font>

[FGators]

Checking the river is horrible. Missed value from an assortment of two pair hands or even one pair hands, given that this guy supposedly sucks.

This spot is nasty; I think its a fold but saying to check/call is pretty terrible. I don't think he bluffs the river too often given turn action.

[iSTRONG]

Call, he is obviously merging his range. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ivvaen]

Just thought I'd say that this turned out to be a really good thread, and I wish there was more of these here.