Really Tough Spot in FTP 30rebuy

[Kochan]

i got him pinned on AdK or AdA planning on check raising you all in on the turn if u bet...so obv raise/call

i very much doubt hes checkin the turn there with any set or hand that he beats u with on the turn and giving you a free card on that board....

[ZeeJustin]

My instinctual reaction oddly enough was to check behind on the turn. Not only does it make it a lot harder to get stacked (he basically has to now check raise the river just to have a chance at stacking us since we are just calling a river bet), but we also gain a lot of equity from bluffs IMO.

Part of the problem is the fact that he minraised. I think that makes AK less likely, but makes pairs (both big and small) and Axd more likely. I would be a lot more happy to get it all-in on the turn vs a checkraise if he just made a normal raise preflop.

I think it's very close between checking and betting the turn. I guess I don't know what a low stakes players' range here preflop is well enough to decide. If it isn't very likely that we are beat then we should probably just get it in since there are a lot of cards that can come to either beat us, or kill our action, and sometimes even lose us the pot when we have the best hand. However, I think it's very likely we are beat (very likely does NOT mean > 50%).

Preflop is fine. Reraising is fine too, but it should be biggish. The reason is that we want to know that if he calls, there's a good chance he has QQ+ and can shut down. If we reraise small we don't get that info because he might call with a wider range of hands, and we would have to c-bet most flops. Obv fold to 4 bet. And no, we are not turning our hand into a bluff by doing this, because sometimes we will stack AA or KK if he decides to just call, especially if we take our free card on the flop (even when we hit 1 pair or a flush draw).

Folding the flop would be terrible IMO.

[Bakes]

I disagree w the minraise read, it is broadway a lot. KJ, KQ, QJ, JT have to be weighted equally with pairs and Axs imo.

[Todd Terry]

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very likely does NOT mean > 50%


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[trimp]

I think pdloan overvalued his hand. AA, AK are very often in his range, I don't think he leads this much into two players with a set. I don't give him credit for being able to bet this large with AJd or QQ on the flop.

Move this thread to the bad beat forum [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
or
Sorry you made a bad fold when he reraised you all-in.

[shaundeeb]

too many high diamonds are on the board and his PF/flop sizes don't indicate to me hands that would make flushes on this board. Also I prob fold the flop with someone left to act who is short compared to that bet.

The PFminR is planning on calling the blinds shove who he either has you crushed or a lot of outs. So just fold the flop you can't play this as profitably as you think because if he checks to you on blank turns you going to be playing pot control and checking behind thus giving his draws free cards as well. So there are sooo few good outcomes from calling this flop that I just fold it and prob fold it PF if I'm agraid I'll get squeezed with soo many people left to act who are either shoving or folding.

[NYWalker]

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too many high diamonds are on the board and his PF/flop sizes don't indicate to me hands that would make flushes on this board. Also I prob fold the flop with someone left to act who is short compared to that bet.

The PFminR is planning on calling the blinds shove who he either has you crushed or a lot of outs. So just fold the flop you can't play this as profitably as you think because if he checks to you on blank turns you going to be playing pot control and checking behind thus giving his draws free cards as well. So there are sooo few good outcomes from calling this flop that I just fold it and fold it PF if I'm agraid I'll get squeezed with soo many people left to act who are either shoving or folding.

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Like this one word by word.

[ZeeJustin]

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very likely does NOT mean > 50%


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Speaking relatively obviously. Don't know why you would nitpick when I went out of my way to clarify.

[kastro]

folding pre is fine.. but folding this flop is terrible as ZeeJ stated.. the only bad outcome is if moorman shoves and pdloan flatcalls.. all other outcomes seem fine... as played to the turn i definantly check the turn.. it was my first instinct and after contemplating it i still think its right. the random will check/shove the turn with a hand thats beating you 90% of the time and the other 10% its AdAx or AdKxQx which i really would not be too happy getting in 47k on the turn at 4/8 blinds.. thus i would check behind turn, call a bet on a safe river and value bet if checked too.

[phatlat]

Roothlus, I don't disagree with your mentality of checking if this were the 100+, but in a low stakes mtt this action tends to suggest AA, imo. Min-raise pre fits the bill there too.

If villain is an ABC tag, his check is simply weak on 4th.