Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions

[IrishHand]

My top 5:

1) Al Horford, ATL
2) Yi Jianlian, MIL
3) Kevin Durant, SEA
4) Sean Williams, NJ
5) Jeff Green, SEA

Horford's averaging nearly a double-double with a steal and two blocks per game while shooting 50% from the field. Atlanta still sucks, but they seem to suck less than in recent years. I give him some of the credit.

Yi has been surprisingly good, averaging 10/7 w/ a steal and 2 blocks a game. I strongly considered putting him at #1 and think he has a very good chance at getting there in the near future if he continues to improve and Pachulia's return to health combined with Atlanta's tweener F glut dig into his minutes at all. Yi could be really, really good - even for a 26-year old rookie.

Durant's got the lovely 19.7 a game, but that's very deceptive. He's among the worst in the league from the floor (38% on an amazing 19 FGA/G) and from three-point land (28% on 5.5 3PA/G). Yes, Seattle sucks - but those numbers mean he's done more harm than good. I've seen him play - he roams the perimiter and hoists a diversified array of contested jumpers and threes. I assume he'll figure out how to play well at the NBA level, but we're not really seeing it now.

Sean Williams has apparently kept his felonious urges in check for long enough to demonstrate he can be a legit NBA big man. He's shooting well in the post and blocking shots like it's his job. What? Oh...nevermind.

Jeff Green has been OK. I figured him for 12/5 as a rookie and would guess that's where he ends up in March - he's 10/4 now in 20 mpg off the bench. He'll be a solid pro, though Yi was still the obvious choice for Seattle imo.

[kidcolin]

That's pretty much my exact order, though I could maybe decide on someone in Green's place, but it's close either way.

One number that jumped out at me about Durant is that he's averaging only 5 FTs per game while taking 18 shots a game. Which isn't terrible.. that's pretty much a Rashard Lewis rate. But the kid has skills way beyond Lewis in terms of taking it to the rack. He should do it more.

But I'm also going overboard with him. After all, he's just a rookie.

[Jurollo]

Who votes for ROY? If it is journalists I think the PPG will sway things to Durant's corner no matter what other rookies do.

[EvanJC]

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even for a 26-year old rookie.


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have a link? i didn't know this had been confirmed

[tarheeljks]

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Who votes for ROY? If it is journalists I think the PPG will sway things to Durant's corner no matter what other rookies do.

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agreed. also, at some point he'll start going to the rack more, so i don't expect him to shoot this poorly all season. he probably ends up in the 42%-45% range. i think he's basically locked unless the hawks make the playoffs

[Green Kool Aid]

i watched durant more than enough in college to know he's a great shooter/scorer. his percentages will be fine by next year, and i expect him to be in the 24-26 ppg range.

however, his lack of rebounds and assists has me quite worried. as does the fact that he has put on no weight since college.

ive projected him to carmelo anthony since the draft, and really haven't changed my mind at this point. in fact, im pretty sure denver would not trade melo for durant.

[Assani Fisher]

I think Durant is going to be very very good(as I'm sure you guys know by my posts this past year), but I'd only put him at #5 right now


Horford
Jianlian
Williams
Moon
Durant

[TheNoodleMan]

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even for a 26-year old rookie.


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have a link? i didn't know this had been confirmed

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It hasn't.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

durant is having a tough time getting good looks which doesn't seem right given his skill set. i think eventually he'll shoot better (hard to shoot worse than he is now) but i'm not convinced he'll be a great shooter (above 45%) if he continues to shoot the shots he shoots.

like someone else said, i am more concerned about
1. his size, he hasn't put on any weight at all.
2. his lack of rebounds and assists and the number of turnovers.

[Green Kool Aid]

Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.