OESD in 3bet pot

[matrix]

preflop is *horrible* especially given..

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Villain was 35/22 31 hands,hadn't 3bet before, Hero Att Steal 42%

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flop is sexytime. He folds whiffed OC's like AK we got 8 outs twice vs a flopped set if the board doesn't pair (and a set is unlikely given his 3bet pre) - and he snapcalls with any OP and we aren't even that unhappy if he has AA.

[spalding]

Flop is standard, preflop I'd fold.

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]


22 times we will win 18.75$
29 times we will get called, and vs that range, we will win 29.53% times. So we will on average lose 21,27$ when getting called if we push all in (note that our push is only for 44,25 since that is all he has in his stack and not for 46,55. Almost always irrelevant but I was just pointing it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Doing the math, 29 times, we will lose 21,27$, 22 times we will win 18,75 equals -204,33$/51=-4.01$



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I think there may be an error in your calculations somewhere. Looking at what happens when we get called, I get:
29.5% you will win 55 (18.75 in the pot + the 36.25 he has left behind)
70.5% you lose 44.25

This yields an average EV of -14.97 when called, not the -21.97 you calculated.

This should make the EV of the push (taking your ranges as a given) as +1.92, pushing it back into the profitable range.

[PepsPersson]

Whitewolf: Thanks. Seems I forgot to include to calc the money he had left behind in my newly made spreedsheet. Thanks, will fix it now!