NL25: Can i possibly fold to this shove against this villian with AQ?

[whizzle]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $21.20
BB: $31.88
UTG: $25.00
MP: $24.65
CO: $77.74
Hero (BTN): $26.23

Reads: <font color="blue">35/20/2.5 (130 hands) Seems to be a little too loose in his calling range especially.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $74.48</font>, Hero has a though decision




possible range of villian here?

i think AT+;99-QQ. KK and AA will be 4bet preflop I guess.

Pokerstove:

Board: 9d Js Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.535% 42.35% 07.19% 18027 3060.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 50.465% 43.28% 07.19% 18423 3060.00 { QQ-99, ATs+, ATo+ }


I think it's REALLY REALLY close for this to be a ev+ call.

Thoughts?

[homeslice]

what he's been like postflop? Has he been pushing TP before?

[whizzle]

can't really tell. The stats are all the info i have on this villian.

[Ramana]

All you beat is a bluff and AT. -EV without a good read imo.

[Nick C]

Since he's probably not doing this with QQ or TT, I think your range may be a little off.

Edit: However, if you really were a coinflip versus this push, then you would have a super-easy call.

[whizzle]

why would he not push this with TT or QQ? Is he to passive for that in your opinion? This is really 1 of my leaks in my game. I mean if he is a bunch more agressive then this would be a instacall right?

[BahhGawd]

Based on the information given, this is an easy fold.

[monkover]

you don´t have to be a flip shough to make this +ev

[cooker3]

I don't think tens or queens are not in his range at all unless he is a superdonk and I doubt AT is there either

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,730 games 0.005 secs 5,346,000 games/sec

Board: 9d Js Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.530% 12.77% 10.76% 3414 2875.50 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 76.470% 65.71% 10.76% 17565 2875.50 { AA, JJ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }

So this is an easy fold for me

[corsakh]

I dont believe in strong shoves [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I call, KK would be my guess.