semi-bluff bets

JJack · #1 08-17-2007, 04:12 PM

Here are 2 hands with oesd.
Do you bet hands like those or better is c/c ?

hand 1#

0.25/0.50 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.7 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
6 folds, CO calls, BU folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (2 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, 2 folds.

<ul type="square">semi-bluff bet?[/list]Final Pot: 3 BB

hand 2#

0.25/0.50 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.7 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB calls.

<ul type="square">semi-bluff bet?[/list]Turn: (3 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB folds.

Final Pot: 4 BB

Buzz-cp · #2 08-17-2007, 04:13 PM

OK, but I definitely check behind turn in hand 2. Villain usually has a piece of that flop and is almost never folding.

CrMenace · #3 08-17-2007, 04:21 PM

Hand 1 I wouldn't be very inclined to bluff bet. You have two villains and a tiny pot (converter says 2BB but it is acutally 1.5). The board has also hit a lot of limping hands that will be happy to call you.

Hand 2 Is an okay semi-bluff, especially if you have a decent read on the villain. I like it better because you're heads up and the pot is marginally better.

I think both of these hands are meh and I wouldn't complain if you had taken a free card either.

NIX · #4 08-17-2007, 04:29 PM

I like the bet in hand 1 because CO didn't bet the flop, so he is going to have nothing a lot, as will the SB who has checked twice.

I take the free card in hand 2. Normally, I'd bet again, but since all you have is an OESD (no overcards) and SB called on the flop, I'd expect him to call again with whatever hand/draw he has on the turn. I don't think you'll end the hand very often by betting in that spot. The first flop bet I liked though.

Aaron W. · #5 08-17-2007, 04:53 PM

I would have bet the flop in #1.

#2 is more read dependent, as it would be nice to know how loose he can peel on the flop. I usually check behind and fold UI because JT doesn't have showdown value (A-high would be a better bet because you can more often draw out to an overpair against a weak queen and show down a winer against a missed flush draw).

CrMenace · #6 08-17-2007, 05:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the flop in #1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really???? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Aaron W. · #7 08-17-2007, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the flop in #1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really???? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. When I'm in the middle between SB and a limper, I'm betting tons of flops.

JJack · #8 08-17-2007, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the flop in #1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really???? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. When I'm in the middle between SB and a limper, I'm betting tons of flops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean i should do bluff bet at flop with my trash hand when SB check? (assumption villains have to be qutie tight)

Guitierez · #9 08-17-2007, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have two villains and a tiny pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The smaller the pot the better your chances to pick it up with a bluff. Semi-bluffing in BIG pots doesn't work.

Aaron W. · #10 08-17-2007, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the flop in #1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really???? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. When I'm in the middle between SB and a limper, I'm betting tons of flops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean i should do bluff bet at flop with my trash hand when SB check? (assumption villains have to be qutie tight)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I'm saying that in a limped pot against one limper and SB, if SB checks you should be betting almost ATC (check the flop texture -- sometimes the flop is messy enough that you might not want to bluff, like a T97 flush draw flop -- too many ways that villains can chase you down and force you to bet multiple times to win the pot).

Try this experiment: Filter your PT database with the following settings
* In the big blind
* 3 players in the pot
* VPIP or SF for free
* No raise

I have 738 such hands running at -.11 BB/hand. This means that I've lost 81.18 BB in these situations (approximately).

Then run the filter again with "steal attempted" (to remove as many blind defenses as possible).

I have 65 such hands at -.45 BB/hand, and I've lost 29.25 BB in these situations.

Putting the two bits of information together, I've got 673 hands where I've lost 51.93 BB when I'm not defending my blind from a late position raise (this still doesn't remove defense against an early position raise). That's a loss of a mere .07 BB/hand in these situations. Considering that the big blind is an automatic .5 BB/hand loss, this is a pretty good.

One other random calculation: My VPIP under the first filter is only 23.44%. That's 173 VPIP hands out of the 738 hands. After I remove the 65 defense hands from the second filter, that leaves me with only 108 VPIP hands out of 673 hands, which is a 16 VPIP in those situations. This means that the winrate statistic is predominantly due to hands where I'm checking preflop.