Chiefs +7 at Steelers?

TMTTR · #1 10-10-2006, 12:18 PM

Given the Steelers' lack of performance this year against decent teams (and Ben's problems) does this not seem like a good bet with a full touchdown? As I see it, Steelers should be favored by a FG or less...

[Insert Noob, Casual Better disclaimer here]

adios · #2 10-10-2006, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given the Steelers' lack of performance this year against decent teams (and Ben's problems) does this not seem like a good bet with a full touchdown? As I see it, Steelers should be favored by a FG or less...

[Insert Noob, Casual Better disclaimer here]

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW you're probably right. I think Ben's problems stem from problems at the wide out position (lack of top talent) more than his play. Ben won't play bad every week though so we may have seen his worst. Huard has done a credible job filing in at QB and the Herm Edwards coached Chiefs do seem to be playing much better defense this year. Edwards has obviously helped in that area. I think some emotional factors weigh in the Steelers favor though. The Steelers being at home after losing 3 in a row and the fact that K.C. is going on the road for a 2nd week in a row are factors that are favorable to the Steelers. Again FWIW.

rjp · #3 10-10-2006, 12:41 PM

TMTTR, I agree, the Steelers should only be laying a small number this week.

playersare · #4 10-10-2006, 12:42 PM

FWIW, almost every book is shading on the chiefs or bumping down to +6.5, so your opinion matches the consensus so far.

XXXNoahXXX · #5 10-10-2006, 01:03 PM

Is it worth buying 0.5 pts. to bump the Chiefs to +7.5?

rjp · #6 10-10-2006, 01:04 PM

XXXNoahXXX, it depends on the price. What price are they offering?

playersare · #7 10-10-2006, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it worth buying 0.5 pts. to bump the Chiefs to +7.5?

[/ QUOTE ]
if the book sells it to you for 10c or less, it's pretty close to breakeven based on an NFL game pushing on the spread of 7 about 6% of the time. you're spending a net of 5c extra to gain an additional 100c on the clean win if the chiefs lose by exactly 7 points.

will it make you rich? no. does it provide some extra peace of mind and/or excitement for a reasonable cost? I would say so. this is why not all sportsbooks allow buying on and off the 7 for the same price as other numbers, if they even do at all. hopefully yours does.

if you use the pulldown menu at pinnacle, you see that they've determined the "correct" price of buying from +7 to +7.5 to be 17c, not 10c. so a little extra line shopping should provide the +EV that you seek.

NajdorfDefense · #8 10-10-2006, 02:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
TMTTR, I agree, the Steelers should only be laying a small number this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

MadTiger · #9 10-10-2006, 02:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is it worth buying 0.5 pts. to bump the Chiefs to +7.5?

[/ QUOTE ]
if the book sells it to you for 10c or less, it's pretty close to breakeven based on an NFL game pushing on the spread of 7 about 6% of the time. you're spending a net of 5c extra to gain an additional 100c on the clean win if the chiefs lose by exactly 7 points.

will it make you rich? no. does it provide some extra peace of mind and/or excitement for a reasonable cost? I would say so. this is why not all sportsbooks allow buying on and off the 7 for the same price as other numbers, if they even do at all. hopefully yours does.

if you use the pulldown menu at pinnacle, you see that they've determined the "correct" price of buying from +7 to +7.5 to be 17c, not 10c. so a little extra line shopping should provide the +EV that you seek.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good info. Thanks.

beetman · #10 10-10-2006, 05:44 PM

The breakeven rate necessary to buy for 10c is 4.8%, which makes a 6% push rate a good bit better than breakeven. Buying off the 7 for 10 cents is a no-brainer.