Daliman's NFL wong teasers: Week 5

Daliman · #1 10-04-2006, 01:10 AM

YTD:
Teased games: 17-1 (94.44%)
2 Team teases: 27-4 (87.10%)
3 Team Teases: 1-0 (100%)
4 Team teases: 6-1 (85.71%)
+4150

For week 5:
Carolina -8/-2
Dallas +2.5/+8.5

Bet size is $327

I am also doing a 7 point tease:
New England -9.5/-2.5
Carolina -8/-1

7 point teases at -120 are theoretically just as strong as 6 pointers at +100. I am giving up a bit on the Carolina end of it, but they are at home and I needed a 2nd team, and since Dallas is on the road, I figured Carolina was the better pairing.

Betting 392.42 to win 327.

GL all.

Bishop22 · #2 10-04-2006, 01:16 AM

So I take you aren't teaser banned at Mansion, good to hear. I had the same thought on the 7-pointer and I am with you, might throw in NE/DAL if Westbrook doesn't play and the line doesn't move.

splashpot · #3 10-04-2006, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
For week 5:
Carolina -8/-2
Dallas +2.5/+8.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Help me understand this. What do the scores have to be for you to win?

Daliman · #4 10-04-2006, 01:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For week 5:
Carolina -8/-2
Dallas +2.5/+8.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Help me understand this. What do the scores have to be for you to win?

[/ QUOTE ]

The first # is the standard line, second # is the teased total. So for these, I need Carolina to win by more than two, and Dallas to win or lose by less than 9.

splashpot · #5 10-04-2006, 01:52 AM

When you say you're giving up a little on the Carolina side, you mean just on the 7 point tease, right? The first one is a regular wong tease and doesn't give up any EV?

Daliman · #6 10-04-2006, 02:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When you say you're giving up a little on the Carolina side, you mean just on the 7 point tease, right? The first one is a regular wong tease and doesn't give up any EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. The extra 1 point is kinda wasted on Carolina, but it's not bad to get from 2 to 1. I think it's worth like just under 2%, and I'm giving up ~5% additional on the seven point tease on them.

bigalt · #7 10-04-2006, 05:55 AM

since the phantom post is annoying me anyway i figure i'd ask the question (again). Are the standard 7.5-8.5 plays worth taking automatically at -110?

Bishop22 · #8 10-04-2006, 06:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
since the phantom post is annoying me anyway i figure i'd ask the question (again). Are the standard 7.5-8.5 plays worth taking automatically at -110?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes they are +ev at anything lower than -121 according to Wong's projections.

Central Limit · #9 10-04-2006, 09:00 AM

I had a girlfriend in high school who was a total Wong Teaser.

Performify · #10 10-04-2006, 10:13 AM

Are these a little earlier in the week than normal?

I see potential for the Dallas line to move to +3, which would take out a good deal of the value of including this in the Wong teaser at this time... I'd probably urge people to wait to later in the week to place this teaser: worst case scenario the line does move to +3 and you elect to place anyways and get the line moved to +9.