Satelllite bubble hand with questions

[Toro]

I had this killer hand last night where I went out on the bubble in a satellite to the WCOOP main event where they're paying 3 seats worth $2600 and we were down to 4 players.

I posted the hand over at BBV last night as a bad beat but the responses that I got were basically that I played the hand bad since a) I should have folded preflop b) I should have waited for a situation with fold equity and c) villian made a good play by calling since he had pot odds.

Well I think BBV is a terrible place to get strategy advice and while lying in bed I was thinking that although I thought villian was a total idiot for calling he was getting pot odds for his call.

So the questions are:

1. Do you fold AQ 4 handed here? My read was that villian was stealing even though he put in 4 times the BB and I thought he would have to lay down a steal hand even though he might be getting odds to call.

2. If you're Villian can you make this call even if you put me on 2 overs or an under pair giving you the proper odds as your stack is only slightly bigger than mine and losing the hand will cripple you and probably cost you the seat?

3. And related to the above, are all plays strictly ruled by pot odds or do you ever fold knowing you most likely have odds to call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t6000 (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t78336)
SB (t242590)
BB (t77202)
UTG (t98372)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q.
UTG raises to t24000, Hero raises to t78036, 2 folds, UTG calls t54036.

Flop: (t156672) 3, 8, 7 (2 players)

Turn: (t156672) 5 (2 players)

River: (t156672) 9 (2 players)

Final Pot: t156672

Results in white below:
UTG has Tc Jc (straight, jack high).
Hero has Ah Qs (high card, ace).
Outcome: UTG wins t156672.

[True North]

1. I don't think I could lay this down in a four-handed game, absent reads. I also don't think I could call off a third of my stack preflop. I push this pretty much 100% of the time.

2. I think villain's call was pretty bad. He could fold this and still have a workable stack, and your range has to be pretty tight on the bubble against a larger stack. I don't have Pokerstove handy (on vacation, using my wife's laptop), so I don't know if he has the right odds. He would if he could include smaller pairs in your range, but I really don't think your range would be that wide.

3. In a satellite on the bubble, there are definitely considerations besides pot odds. Folding could easily be a better $EV play than calling, despite being a worse cEV play. Again, absent reads, I'm not sure that this is such a situation, but it looks like it.

[mornelth]

Your push = +cEV, -$EV
His call = 0cEV, --$EV

nuff said...

[Beachman42]

My thoughts:

UTG played that hand terribly. Push pf with JTs, don't bet 25% of your stack. Or better yet, FOLD with 2 short stacks behind. The only reason I'd push is to stop AQ from calling and steal from the short BB with the CL is in the SB. Limping is worse than betting or folding in a Sat bubble.

You pushed with a very difficult hand, but were a 2:1 favorite when you got the chips in. My only question: did you really think it necessary to double up to win a seat? 3rd & 4th are a dead heat here. You only needed to out-last him to claim a prize.

If you felt like the 4 of you were evenly matched in SAT play (CL won't be playing ANY hand under QQ), then I's prolly use all of my time bank and push with AQ. Calling with JTs for your SAT life is worse than raising to begin with. Odds or no odds . . .

[Nottom]

I think your push is fine if UTG has been active but AQ is basically at the bottom of my range, the fact that you are basically tied for the last slot means you can't just sit back and wait for AA to play. And yes his call is terrible.

[sdplayerb]

his call was horrific. it could not be much worse.
you played it totally fine.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
My only question: did you really think it necessary to double up to win a seat? 3rd & 4th are a dead heat here. You only needed to out-last him to claim a prize.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I didn't feel it necessary to double up but I was beginning to feel a little pressure to do something. I was 2nd in chips for a long time and was very patient and picked good spots to steal but at this point I was now down to 3rd in chips(just barely) and would drop to fourth once I posted my BB.

At the time, I really felt the play was low risk unless someone at the table found a monster hand so I was just trying to pick up his 24K + the blinds and antes. I was relatively sure I would get a fold and was not prepared at all to get called by someone holding JT.

Edit: Note my position relative to the big stack. In SB vs BB situations I was at a total disadvantage due to my position and stack size. So I basically had to give him my SB virtually everytime it was folded to us unless I found a decent hand or if I was suicidal.

[locutus2002]

this is a bad beat post. Sorry you lost, you got your chips in as a favorite.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a bad beat post. Sorry you lost, you got your chips in as a favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you didn't read my original post very carefully. I posted this in BBV and every responder gave me strategy advice which btw was exactly opposite to what the responders over here have said.

I've been playing and posting a long time but I'm not immune to doubting myself so I posted it over here to see what guys I respect had to say.

[locutus2002]

OK, I did read that.

You should have FE when you push, so you are ahead more than 2:1. As an active bigstack on a satellite bubble, villain is probably opening 400 hands if not more (if he has identified that the largest stack has checked out and is celebrating), and he he/she should be calling only with the 40 or so.

Because you are ~the shortest, you should move with alot less, IMO.

I play a lot of satellites, and I am no longer convinced that the fold in strategy is the best shorthanded.

In general, it's always $EV- for any player to put chips in the pot. This of course increases FE in every hand, and many players don't adjust (I doubt I understand what adjusting means). However many strategies are possible rather than folding in.

I'm probably pushing alot less here.