call 2 bets cold on the river?

[B_ing]

Thanks to everyone!!

after one day has passed I am asking myself "why the Hell did you check so much and lead out so less"?

This may be a leak in my game when I am playing against agrressive opponents and a FD is present. I wil work on that.

[GLKST526]

*grunch*

Ok, I'm going to take this a street at a time.

Preflop: I think this is fairly standard

Flop: In general I would probably bet this, as I have shown strength preflop, I have two overs and the nut straight draw. I don't hate a check though, since the chance of that coordinated a flop hitting one or both players in some way is fairly high. If you are going to check however, I don't understand how you can cold call 2 bets. I'd lead the flop because no one has yet suggested that my overcard outs might not be good. The bet and the raise has provided me with that information. Now you have 3 safe outs, and 7 outs that will leave you wondering if you have the best hand or are up against two pair or a flush. Another concern is that even if you do make a better hand, the villain(s) will still have a redraw to a flush. It's really just best to dump it here.

Turn: Well you managed to hit one of the 3 safe outs that give you the nuts. I don't hate the check raise, but I'd rather lead out, and if you are lucky MP3 will raise again and you can repop it and maybe get MP1 stuck in the middle. A check raise has MP1 calling two bets cold and will only force out a hand you can crush, as there is no way he will fold if he has a hand with any potential to beat you on the river.

River: If you're going to show aggression on the turn, you should probably bet the river. If you don't, you're saying just kidding guys, didn't realize that flush card was going to come and I'm petrified of it. It will also help you in your decision making by establishing where you are in the hand a bit better. Say you bet, MP1 raises and MP3 reraises. Pretty clear fold. Or say you bet, MP1 raises, and MP3 cold calls. Probably as easy call since you'd be getting 17-1 or so, even though you'd probably lose. So that's why I'd bet the river. As it is, cold calling two bets cold here is tough, I'd be surprised if one of them doesn't have a flush

[Guitierez]

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However, when you consider the chances of getting 3-bet plus the flush redraw that makes you lose even if you hit your hand, you really need a larger pot to make up for those times you get caught.

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I completely agree with your assessment of relative position, but didn't we already discount our outs for the flush redraw? Why do we have to reduce our odds again?

[Aaron W.]

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However, when you consider the chances of getting 3-bet plus the flush redraw that makes you lose even if you hit your hand, you really need a larger pot to make up for those times you get caught.

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I completely agree with your assessment of relative position, but didn't we already discount our outs for the flush redraw? Why do we have to reduce our odds again?

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Here was the original post:

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FLOP: I counted 1 out for each overcard and 3 outs for the IStD (because I did not count the diamonds). I need 9 big bets to continue with 5 outs, and due to my opponents agressiveness I knew i could extract 2 extra big bets so I would have Implied odds to take one card off.

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My understanding of this is that one card for each over is to remove the diamonds as outs. This is different from increasing the required implied odds necessary to chase.

When you say that you're removing/reducing [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] cards as outs, it's because the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] card brings a flush. But the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] redraw affects your non-flush outs because you can hit your card and still lose, as opposed to K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] being a fake out because it doesn't actually give you the best hand.

I'm really loose with the numbers here. I started with the 15 SB pot needed, bumped it a couple SB because of fear of getting 3 bet and bumped it a couple more because of the flush redraw. I don't have a good scheme to estimate this sort of thing.

The digest has a link to an older post of mine that has the following:

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Here's some very general advice. On the flop, if the odds are very close, call for one and fold for two (of course, this isn't a rule but a simplistic model to use as a crutch while you develop the necessary skills to make good decisions consistently). When it's one bet, you often have better implied odds than you think because there tend to be extra players seeing the turn and river. Usually when it's two bets to you, your outs are not quite what they appear to be and your reverse implied odds are higher (the exception is a flush draw). Being aware of the factors besides pot odds will dramatically increase your ability to make the right play. I've only given a very simple example of adjusting the odds based on generically applied implied odds and reverse implied odds considerations. Think about position, relative position, players' tendencies, and hand ranges to help you make smart plays.

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This hand fits into this idea very well.