When to stop with KK. - Page 2

Guitierez · #11 08-14-2007, 10:02 AM

:grunge:

[ QUOTE ]
Do I lay it down after MP2 raises BB's turn bet? I'd hate to lay down the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I just read that if you don't lay down the best hand sometimes, you are calling way too loosely post-flop.

I don't worry so much about the moran who overplays his hands, although you have to consider he also might have hit two pair on the flop, as he limps ATC. Then you have 3 more outs when the board pairs (missing him)... I just call the 3bet.

Lately I respect donk bets more, many people are not aware of the benefits of checkraising. I used to auto-raise donks, but this lead to serious spewage. BB firing into the field looks exactly like 99 to me, maybe he holds J9, maybe he slowplayed something from the flop. Two of those weirdos in front of me is too much, I fold. Note also that you are not closing the action, and BB still can pop it.

Guitierez · #12 08-14-2007, 10:16 AM

I'm still struggling w/ the weighted outs analysis. Snitch is very good in this, too, maybe he likes to put in his $.02.

I think you also have to take into account 22 and 55 (slowplayed) and then you have to multiply the result by the probability MP2 has us beat (his raise is strong evidence he has more than a pair)

ETA:
[ QUOTE ]
If you expand your range, things only get better from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I add J9 with 8 outs(9 combos), 22 ( 3 combos) and 55 (3 combos):

((9*8)+ (3*2)+(3*2)+(3*2)+(9*8)+(9*8))/(9+3+3+3+9+9)=6.5 outs.

You need something like 6:1 odds to call correctly, i reckon. Say you put in 4 BB, will the expected pot size be 24 BB? If BB and MP2 all cap, this is a call, indeed.

JJack · #13 08-14-2007, 01:19 PM

I think its small chance that BB has 92s, 95s and cold call 2 , so u have to add probability of this holds like

((9*8)* 20% (hand J9) + (3*2)* 20% (pocet 55) +(3*2)* 30% (pocet 99) +(3*2) * 20% (pocet 22) +(9*8)* 5% +(9*8)* 5%)/(9+3+3+3+9+9) = ...

Guitierez · #14 08-14-2007, 03:08 PM

Excluding 92 and 95 sounds reasonable. so we have

J9 - 9 combos, 8 outs
22 - 3 combos, 2 outs
55 - 3 combos, 2 outs
99 - 3 combos, 2 outs

9*8 + 3*2 + 3*2 + 3*2
---------------------- = 5 outs
9 + 3 + 3 + 3

This means, that if we expect the final pot to be at least 8.2 times our wager, we will profit, right?

There are two problems though: we don't know if we will hit one of our outs and still lose, (to a frush or a miracle QT) and secondly, we analysed only teh outs against BB, what is happening if both are ahead of us, what are our odds then? Is there something like a concatenation of odds?

CrMenace · #15 08-14-2007, 06:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There are two problems though: we don't know if we will hit one of our outs and still lose, (to a frush or a miracle QT) and secondly, we analysed only teh outs against BB, what is happening if both are ahead of us, what are our odds then? Is there something like a concatenation of odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Guit,

Yes these are real issues, but offset by a couple of points:
1) OP mentioned that MP1 is an idiot
2) You've selected a particularly bleak set of hands to put BB on.

Maxinho · #16 08-14-2007, 09:51 PM

I can't fold this hand, I would only fold against a ultra passive opp. Otherwise I will call, and if he is a maniac I would probably raise

Point Blank · #17 08-15-2007, 12:56 AM

bahhh ...

this is a pretty hard spot ... if MP is a tard

MP can have ... any top pair, over pair, flush draw,

BB makes is tough ... though I would assume he too is an idiot as at this level players are generally retarded (yes?)

without any info on BB I'm not folding ... and would prefer to 3bang the turn

BB cold calling on the fold and donk the turn can be something slowplayed, a flush draw, and FD that just hit a pair or oesd on the turn, could easily be a Jack (not just J9)

this could also be a clever donk my bb if he knows MP is a complete tard and that you can fold good hands

JamesBJames · #18 08-15-2007, 06:51 AM

I actually was thinking between a call or a raise since the maniac would usually be free money, usually only holding a pair of jacks and overplaying it. I did have to worry about the BB, so I think a call would have been best in hindsight, but I decided to go ahead and 3-barrel it.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero caps, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (27.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 31.75 BB

 Maniac turned over J2s and BB mucked 44.

Sushiglutton · #19 08-15-2007, 09:35 AM

Interesting hand. Important to remember how much the action changes when a maniac is in the game. Notice how BB tries to use the maniac to protect his marginal holding. One most adjust BB range a lot on the turn when he's betting into the maniac.

Eric Yang · #20 08-15-2007, 10:23 AM

I would still call here. That pot is enormous and you got a maniac playing. Also the board is perfect for a flush draw/possible straight draw. The aggressive betting of BB and MP2 before the river card suggests that they probably didn't spike an ace. My best guess is that BB has a J. Of course, one of them probably has something higher than your kings.

But folding the river I think was wrong. You're getting 15-1 pot odds here, and i really think you'd win more than 1/15 of the time in this situation.