checking behind or betting mediocre draws in rred pots

[keikiwai]

villain is lag/tag decent
assume not much history

not considering what cards i hold, this seems like a pretty good board to cbet in a raised pot

is it better to check this draw behind - and then i can basically only win if i hit?

or is it better to cbet and risk getting check raised - which villain is doing relatively often imo, since he's decent?

it seems like the stronger your draw the more likely you should be to check behind, up to the point where your draw becomes strong enough that you're willing to get it all in, at which point i could see going either way

in rred pots, you usually discount flush draws to a degree, so does that make my flush draw stronger than the same flush draw in an unraised pot, and therefore i should be more likely to check behind?

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $259.90 (64.98 BB)
MP: $435.60 (108.90 BB)
CO: $525.60 (131.40 BB)
keikiwai (BTN): $727.70 (181.93 BB)
SB: $412.50 (103.13 BB)
BB: $769.50 (192.38 BB)

Pre-Flop: 4 5 dealt to keikiwai (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $16</font>, <font color="red">keikiwai raises to $54</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $38

Flop: ($114) J 7 2 (2 Players)
CO checks

[Kazuya]

this is just math and frequencies
here are the outcomes

1) you bet, he folds, you win the pot (X% of time)
2) you bet, he check raises, you fold and lose Cbet+pot (X% of time)
3) you bet, he calls, and say you lose at SD (X% of time)
4) you bet, he calls, and you win at SD (X% of time)

because of this, it is player dependent, that is what you think his frequencies are, his check raise percents, once you try and figure out what the X's are, you can run +EV calculations (no im too lazy to do them, but this is all you have to do)

edit: dont forget to factor in Cbet sizes, and of course this equation becomes more hard if you factor in turn plays, but just ignore that to give you a general outline.

[dirtytricks]

I think this is usually a bet. If he never folds or checkraises a lot checking behind is better. I mix it up but bet about 4/5 times.

If the flop was Ace high I would definately bet. This flop favours checking more than most since he will chekcraise QQ and a Jack a lot. I would still bet most of the times though.