250 BB 50/100 HU Tricky River Spot

[Ansky]

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Thanks for all the replies. On the river I timed down and went through the thought process: "this is the best hand I can realistically have in this spot, I would have guessed that he wouldnt flat aa or aq on the turn although Im obviously not sure, maybe hes doing something spewy" and I called.

Having thought about it for a few days I think it should have been a fold, although I think its pretty close. I think that very few people are going to go for value with worse hands than mine with this line. However, since he probably doesnt play aq and aa this way anywhere close to 100% of the time, he has to be getting out of line with busted draws and other stuff a really small percentage of the time to make me +EV against his range.

Even so, I think its a little optimistic to think that this guy shows up busted draws more than once in a blue moon. I dont think this guy was capable of deducing that the best possible hand I could realistically have is q9 and I would at least have to consider folding it to a push. I think that if he decides to bluff here its more of a "Ive been playing pretty tight, he cant call a push here without a huge hand" type of thing, and I just dont think this guy does it that often.

Results in white:

<font color="white">He had [ 5C,AD ] and I took it down </font>

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god damn thats sick, never underestimate the euros i guess.

[Ansky]

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err sorry I guess he does not value bet thin enough but damn that seems like a thin edge.

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You think this based on 1 hand or what?

[RaSZi]

underrepped? cause u slowplayed preflop?

or cause u frontpot turn AND river? i mean wtf recallme..

[xorbie]

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The problem with folding is that if we put AA/AQ in villains range, you have to at least say that 33/99 are going to be a decent part of his range.

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No you don't. Why do you think that?

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Villain prob realizes we dont have AA/AQ ourselves very often (if weve been active 3betting at all, I can assume he can figure this out if hes playing 50/100, even if hes no pro). So except the very one hand we have, 99 isnt that different from AQ here, and 33 is only a tiny bit worse.

[coxquinn]

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err sorry I guess he does not value bet thin enough but damn that seems like a thin edge.

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You think this based on 1 hand or what?

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no OP said it. It was the only thing that seemed bad about villain and the rest of the description scares the [censored] outta me.

[gordongecko]

glad to see you took down the pot, but I don't think many people here would object to a fold given the size of the shove.

[ikestoys]

if he can slowplay AA or AQ, he can slowplay 33, 99...

it seems possible he got here with a naked Q also.

add in his bluffing frequencies, seems like a pretty std call.