The Hated Free Showdown Raise Maybe

[Garland]

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Ok. What if we were to assume he would never 3 bet the turn, even with a king high flush? Would a turn raise followed by river check be the best line then?

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Originally, I was going to say the two lines would be exactly neutral. You get the same two bets in if you call/call versus raise turn/check river. And it would be neutral if the river blanked.

However, if you can assume 100% that villain will never 3-bet you on the turn, then your raise the turn line has an added advantage. Why? Basically because you will insure that you get 3 big bets when you improve. Once he calls the turn raise, he’s almost bound to call the river regardless of what falls.

But suppose you just call the turn, and then the river 4 flushes. Then he might check/call you, and you lose that extra bet. This is actually the specific case where raising the turn will help you.

Garland

[cgrohman]

This is exactly what I was thinking at the time. I was almost 100% positive that he wasn't going ot raise the turn because I held the trump. I think I tainted responses by saying that he felt as though I was running over him. He did feel this way, but nonetheless, I put in action at every opportunity and any average live player is loathe to put in a 3rd BB after a person has put in that much pre-flop and flop action against multiple opponents.

I think this hand is the exceptional case where the "free-showdown if unimproved" raise is the optimal play.

[private joker]

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I don't want to reveal the turn action. But at the time, I wasn't expecting a riase even from a king high flush.

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This is the key to why we need to raise the turn -- holding the As, it's impossible for our opponent to have the nuts, so it would take a pretty aggro player to 3-bet the turn with the K-high flush. Many of us would do it, but we're not most players. Most players will chill out after the flop is capped and the turn is raised.

So yeah, a smaller flush is not reraising us, but worse sets and 2 pairs will call us hoping to improve (despite drawing dead or to 1 out).

Raise the turn. As for what to do on the river after he calls, I'd just try to sniff out based on a read whether he called the turn in an attempt to call down with a flush, or if he knew he was dead but was praying to get lucky.

[*TT*]

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I guess my real question is- do I bet a blank river-- that;s waht I meant. If I am not betting a blank river then it is a free showdown raise. If I am betting a blank river, then its a value raise. etc etc etc

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1) check behind on the river if you don't improve.

2) This is a 100% value raise. You don't have to fire again on the river for there to be value.

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OMG my line sucked. It came off the top of my head, i didnt put any thought into it.

If villain has a flush we are a 35% equity dog on average with 10 outs to improve to boat and 6 outs to improve to a flush (assuming villain doesn't have JsQs or 7s8s of course - that would be a tragedy)

So if the villain has a flush 65% of the time when the action goes bet, raise, 3-bet, call it will cost the hero 4 bets to see a showdown.

Assuming the villain bets the river the hero will gain on average 1 extra bet if he makes his hand. 35% the hero will earn 5BB

-2.6+ 1.75 = EV -.85BB

If however the hero calls the turn (assuming the third player folds) then the hero loses 2 bets 65% of the time, and earns an average of 2.5 BB 35% of the time.

.875-1.3= -.425BB

Of course there will be times when the villain has 2 pair, a smaller set, Ks, etc etc etc. if by calling we keep in the third player for one more bet the hero's EV changes to + .575BB!

If however the villain will not 3-bet with a baby flush then the hero loses 2 BB 65% of the time if he checks behind on the river, and gains 3BB 35% of the time when his hand is good (assuming the villain cannot fold of course).

1.05-1.3= EV -.25BB


Its now clear to me the correct play is call the turn, re-evaluate on the river due to the risk of a 3-bet and the advantage of keeping in the dead money. This line probably shows the greatest ROI when we are lucky enough to keep in the third player and the hero is 100% showdown bound.

[HOWMANY]

haven't read the hand or the replies, I just saw you had a set of aces and the nut flush draw, this isn't a freeshowdown raise

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess my real question is- do I bet a blank river-- that;s waht I meant. If I am not betting a blank river then it is a free showdown raise. If I am betting a blank river, then its a value raise. etc etc etc

[/ QUOTE ]

1) check behind on the river if you don't improve.

2) This is a 100% value raise. You don't have to fire again on the river for there to be value.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG my line sucked. It came off the top of my head, i didnt put any thought into it.

If villain has a flush we are a 35% equity dog on average with 10 outs to improve to boat and 6 outs to improve to a flush (assuming villain doesn't have JsQs or 7s8s of course - that would be a tragedy)

So if the villain has a flush 65% of the time when the action goes bet, raise, 3-bet, call it will cost the hero 4 bets to see a showdown.

Assuming the villain bets the river the hero will gain on average 1 extra bet if he makes his hand. 35% the hero will earn 5BB

-2.6+ 1.75 = EV -.85BB

If however the hero calls the turn (assuming the third player folds) then the hero loses 2 bets 65% of the time, and earns an average of 2.5 BB 35% of the time.

.875-1.3= -.425BB

Of course there will be times when the villain has 2 pair, a smaller set, Ks, etc etc etc. if by calling we keep in the third player for one more bet the hero's EV changes to + .575BB!

If however the villain will not 3-bet with a baby flush then the hero loses 2 BB 65% of the time if he checks behind on the river, and gains 3BB 35% of the time when his hand is good (assuming the villain cannot fold of course).

1.05-1.3= EV -.25BB


Its now clear to me the correct play is call the turn, re-evaluate on the river due to the risk of a 3-bet and the advantage of keeping in the dead money. This line probably shows the greatest ROI when we are lucky enough to keep in the third player and the hero is 100% showdown bound.

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Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I don't think you included in this ev calc the possibility that villain could have two pair or a set. Obviously if his whole range is {flushes} then the correct strategy is to peel the turn, fold the river UI.

[*TT*]

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Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I don't think you included in this ev calc the possibility that villain could have two pair or a set. Obviously if his whole range is {flushes} then the correct strategy is to peel the turn, fold the river UI.

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I made mention of that in the post, its not easy to determine if the villain will hold 2 pair or a smaller set which is why I believe its best to call the river unimproved. I had to set the bar someonewhere, since the board is monotone thats the basis for the decision.

[vmacosta]

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Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I don't think you included in this ev calc the possibility that villain could have two pair or a set. Obviously if his whole range is {flushes} then the correct strategy is to peel the turn, fold the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I made mention of that in the post, its not easy to determine if the villain will hold 2 pair or a smaller set which is why I believe its best to call the river unimproved. I had to set the bar someonewhere, since the board is monotone thats the basis for the decision.

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ok, but then why do the ev calc in the first place? Obviously if you are an equity dog vs. a range that never folds and always bets twice then you shouldn't raise the turn.

[cgrohman]

Also, the 3rd player did fold to Villian's turn donk, so he's out.

[DcifrThs]

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why do i want to valuebet the river if he doesn't 3bet the turn?

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well this depends for me on what villian does w/ 99/TT preflop. if he always 3bets with them then he is far more likely to have a flush or KsT given the action than a set+two pair.

however, that being said, i've seen some very profitable opportunities appear when somebody who has been "bullied" decides to stand up without a top made hand at the wrong time (this being the wrong time).

Barron