NL 25 full ring, AA faces large overpush on the flop

jk1986 · #1 11-03-2006, 07:47 PM

Villain has a saw flop % of 26.7%, and has a player note from a previous session of decent TAG.
I haven't been playing that many hands simply as I haven't had any to play.

Villain takes a while to make the call of my preflop raise. His limp, call line makes me think small pair, and with my tight preflop play in this session, makes me think that hes got to be putting me on a big hand or at least ak. With that board, I think hes hit his set and is expecting a call from ak aa etc.

The other possible hand would be a monster combo draw, which I think possible as well, although less likely than a set.
Therefore my reasoning was to fold as I'm 50-50 to a monster draw, and losing to a set, and as far as I can see the only hand I'm going to see here that I'm beating a bare flush draw, (I should mention also that I really don't think the villain is risking his stack here with just TP).

What do you think of my reasoning here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG ($13)
UTG+1 ($4.65)
UTG+2 ($5)
MP1 ($15.30)
MP2 ($40.55)
MP3 ($24.26)
CO ($24.25)
Button ($4.45)
Hero ($34.09)
BB ($6.13)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.25. Hero posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, UTG+2 (poster) checks, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises to $1.65, 1 fold, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50.

Flop: ($5.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $5, CO folds, MP2 goes all in, Hero folds

Dustangel · #2 11-03-2006, 08:30 PM

I would fold here. I think he expects you to have pair on K and set is very likely.

n1nj4.br · #3 11-03-2006, 08:33 PM

call.

jk1986 · #4 11-04-2006, 10:47 AM

BUMP

Dennisa · #5 11-04-2006, 12:30 PM

I dont even see a big combo draw out there. AK of hearts is one and you have two of his outs to make him down to 12 instead of 14 outs. Calling 45 sooted just does not make sense. Also KK does not make a lot of sense as I would think he would 3 bet it to help define what your hand is.

I think you see 22/33 a majority of time. You may see JJ/QQ if he is capable of making an all in bluff to move you off a hand. I also think you may see AK here a bit, as the money is going in anyways, I'll just push to get some fold equity (Tag's line).

Pokerstove worst case scenario range:

10,890 games 0.016 secs 680,625 games/sec

Board: Kc 2h 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.8788 % 13.50% 04.38% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 82.1212 % 77.74% 04.38% { KK+, 33-22, AhKh }

Now if you add any ak to the range of hands, I think you have a call as you are 40/60 and there is enough dead money in the pot to make the difference up.

15,840 games 0.005 secs 3,168,000 games/sec

Board: Kc 2h 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.8769 % 36.62% 03.25% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 60.1231 % 56.87% 03.25% { KK+, 33-22, AKs, AKo }

robinmbuk · #6 11-04-2006, 12:37 PM

Against a donk who would take the usuall: call flop/raise turn line with a flopped set in a raised pot, I'd call. Against a decent TAG like this guy, I fold.

ATrain · #7 11-04-2006, 01:20 PM

I don't think villain has KK or any AK. If he is decent tag, he would have raised those with a poster and limper in front of him. I'd also raise 22 and 33, but I still think they are way more likely than TT+ or AK.