25nl AA bluffcatcher

jk1986 · #1 11-03-2006, 11:06 AM

Villain saw flop- 31% , and was showing a fair amount of post flop aggression, and has been caught making a river bluff earlier in the session.
Is he bluffing a missed draw enough of the time for me to call this river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB ($37.60)
Hero ($25.35)
MP ($25)
Button ($24.15)
SB ($20.42)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $0.25. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero raises to $1.25, MP (poster) calls $1, 2 folds, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($3.85) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.9, MP folds, BB calls $2.90.

Turn: ($9.65) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7.

River: ($23.65) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero?

n1nj4.br · #2 11-03-2006, 11:17 AM

i think so.

kabouter · #3 11-03-2006, 11:31 AM

You should have made the flop bet $4 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

The thing is what would he call your 5xbb preflop bet with?

TT, A7s, ATs, JTs

With a vpip of 31% I would say those are the only hands he could have that could beat you.

But if he made this kind of call/call/bluff before then go ahead and call it. Cause most of the time he just missed his draw.

Dave I · #4 11-03-2006, 11:37 AM

He has just as many hands that don't have a T.

AJ/AQ/AK/KQ/QJ/KJ/etc...

I call here.

mother_brain · #5 11-03-2006, 11:48 AM

He could have 44, K10, Q10. I've made this call plenty of times, but it is a boat alot.

TJgniL · #6 11-03-2006, 11:56 AM

Looks like c/c w/ a T or the missed flush. What was his previous river bluff like?

youngin20 · #7 11-03-2006, 12:01 PM

Folds.

tojx · #8 11-03-2006, 12:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

4_2_it · #9 11-03-2006, 12:25 PM

Getting 3:1 making this call is probably EV neutral. With a better read, hero can make a better decision. Not sure I see enough in the OP's read to change my mind here.

mother_brain · #10 11-03-2006, 12:39 PM

I wouldnt have much of a problem saying that this is a boat 70-80% of the time i've found myself in this situation