Got him in the middle

[electrical]

Everything in this hand is pretty standard with the exception of Fifth street, about which I would like comment.

Complete/call on third preserves some doubt about the nature of my hand, and since this table always thinks I have nothing, that could prove valuable.

On Five, I am pretty sure I'm between bare Kings (limper in seat 8 who probably has Broadway cards in the hole) and Kings-up (decent, aggressive player in seat 4 who may also just have Kings, but I lean towards two pair). I'm happy to get more money in here, but when it's obvious that me and two-pair can't get bare Kings to fold when we hit him with two bets cold, should I raise again and give my betting partner another opportunity to raise? Kings probably won't fold, but with all the Kings out, I should be looking to get it capped, right?

If I'm wrong about seat 4, and he has the other Aces under, do I still want it to get capped with the dead Kings in the pot as overlay?

I think I pooched this pretty badly.

7 Card Stud High ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.33 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___completes ___calls
Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 4: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___raises
Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___brings-in ___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 8: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___calls ___calls

4th Street - (7.67 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___raises ___raises
Seat 4: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___raises ___calls
Seat 8: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___double-bets ___calls ___calls

5th Street - (15.83 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___bets ___calls
Seat 4: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___raises
Seat 8: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___checks ___calls

[Merton0806]

Jam 4th ( which you did ) and Jam 5th.

[Merton0806]

you shouldn't be too unhappy that seat 4 is still in the hand. The guy is providing great equity for you ( and seat 8). if you eliminate him on 5th you are at roughly 50% equity. ( which is the same as you have with him still in). But i guess with a pot this big its best that he goes out.

This is assuming of course that your predictions are right that seat 4 has just bare kings and seat 8 has kings up with something like 88 in the hole

[electrical]

[ QUOTE ]
This is assuming of course that your predictions are right that seat 4 has just bare kings and seat 8 has kings up with something like 88 in the hole

[/ QUOTE ]
If you follow the betting, I read it the other way: Seat 8 has a Broadway backdoor (or maybe two more Spades) and seat 4 has split Kings, Kings-up or pocket Aces.

Seat 4 is an aggressive, decent player, so I think it quite likely he has the same read on seat 8 as me, has Kings-up and doesn't want seat 8 to hit his kickers, which would give him better Kings-up.

Or he has pocket Aces.

[Merton0806]

ok you should jam 5th then if your read is on.

[Sevenfold]

Jam it up again.

If seat 8 had three Ks we would have heard from him by now. If he does----so be it, he played it well.

It looks like you are up against two hands of Ks, and you have to love this spot. You are not necessarily ahead though.

While there is a 2 and a 5 dead, seat 4 could have made 2 pair by now, and seat 8 is playing? A flush draw? Pocket 4s? I'd pop it again on 5th and see what 6th street brings.

If: You are up against dead Ks in each hand, you are a monster fav at 65%.

If: Seat 4 has the other aces, and 8 has bare Ks, you are a little better than even money.

If: Seat 8 is playing pocket 4s say, then:
-----if seat 4 has aces, you are a small dog.

----if seat 4 has the other bare Ks you are still a huge money fav even though trailing at the moment.

If: they both have 2 pair---You are STILL a big money fav.

Sooooo----the only bad result here is if someone has a set, and that looks unlikely.

You are either a slight underdog, or have a decent-to-huge edge.

In situations like this, you of course won't be able to calculate the odds so precise, but they are playing dead cards and yours are all clean (-6d).

You should be capping 5th if given the option, not caring much what the other players do. If someone folds, fine, so much the better for you, but if they don't, thats OK.

In situations like this, where someone starts with Ks, and someone else makes open Ks, the original player sometimes goes berserk at the audacity of the other playing making 'his' hand, and bets and bets and bets (I know you don't have three Ks) regardless of what the third player in the hand might be doing.

Given that tendency, and with the majority of the scenarios favoring you, you should want to get the money in. You can't pick and choose their hands, i.e., if he has Ks do I want to raise? What if he has aces? You can't read the hand that accurately at this point, and you don't need to.

You aren't going to win this hand the majority of the time, but you will win plenty whan you do getting 2-1, so you can't say, "Oh, I lost, I should have slowed down."

Jam it jam it jam it.

[Roland]

Good post, Sevenfold.

[Poker CPA]

You're 2nd best, maybe 3rd best!!!! No folding here, no matter what you do. You need a card. Your call is not a mistake. Your risking only another BB on 6th, or maybe a checkdown.

[PoorLawyer]

doesnt seat 4 have to be ahead of you on 5th a VERY large % of the time? He is raising open Kings, which doesnt make a lot of sense if he cant beat them since it doesnt look like there is a draw.

4th i like, but on 5th i think seat 4 has to have the other aces or kings up. The third hand i can think of is the Kings with an ace in the hole and he thinks he is going to outkick seat 8...since that is the only spot you really like, I would lean towards calling the raise and catching a card.

[electrical]

I don't doubt that if we turned-over our hands on Fifth, I'd be looking at either Kings-up or pocket Aces from seat Four.

That said, I think Kings & Kings (up) are a big part of their ranges, and I made a mistake not getting more bets in there on Fifth. If I make trips or two pair, I will be very difficult to run down, and I may not be able to get any raises in if I improve.