#41
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
I just don't know what you're doing with a bet - c/c - bet line. A weakish jack hoping to take a 9 or 8 to valuetown? Would you ever take this line with a good hand on this board? It just looks bluffy and might get looked up lighter than you think - and obviously sometimes you will be bluffing w/ the best hand.
If you think you can force a fold with that play a fair amount of the time, then sure, a call is okay. I certainly agree that an A is a great card for you and that he will almost certainly bet it with bluffs and for value a large % of time. I'm not convinced he will bet if the board completes your straight - he may not make thin vbs if that's the case, and your hand looks ten-ish by the c/c - or at least drawy in some direction (e.g. 8T, 9T, JQ, 9Q) |
#42
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
I like the way you're thinking, Sean, but as others have said, I think you get looked up pretty light, here, and you also have a lot of reverse implied odds to worry about.
Here's a little math: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 19.438% 17.70% 01.73% 740 72.50 { AsTd } Hand 1: 80.562% 78.83% 01.73% 3295 72.50 { TT-55, AcKc, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 76s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, 76o } Here's a pretty wide range with several hands where a lot of can be outdrawn, and a several that can get bluffed out. Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$200 on the river, playing just for your draw. Due to the reverse implied odds of hitting your A, and the poor implied odds of hitting a T, unless you think he'll value bet thin here and call a c/r with worse, some significant amount of the time for this to be +EV, by itself. If you were relying on a pure bluff, you would be laying 356:231 or 1.54:1, and need him to fold ~60% of the time on the river. Given the awkwardness of your line, I think you get looked up pretty light here, not to mention there are a lot of good hands in his range here that are definitely not folding. A few decent scare cards can hit (KQ76), though. Combining the two, your EV is ($356-$EVhit):$231 If we ignore implied odds: EVHit = 0.2*$231 $356-($231*0.2):$231 You are laying: 1.34:1 on your bluff. which still needs to fold him out 57% of the time Using a little Bayesian analysis, and some rough estimation, on the above range, I figure he folds to a river bet roughly 40% of the time, even with a lot of floats. That might be a bit generous, as it does involve him folding top pair sometimes, and floating 20% of the time. In order to get odds favorable enough for this bluff to work, profitably, we need to lay 1.5:1 $356-EVhit:231/1.5 $356-EVhit:154 EVhit = $202 So, we need to make $202 on average, on the river, when we make our draw, for our bluff to be profitable (~$45 of that comes from pot equity, and another $50 from floats). He would have to go for a lot of thin value to make this worthwhile, and your outs are scare cards. |
#43
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
^^^^^^^yep^^^^^^^
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#44
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
Big Jim:
uh.. what? I have to make ~$200 on the river on average to compensate for a $96 turn peel? Are you high? |
#45
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
what is yer ps sn? pm me plz
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#46
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
[ QUOTE ]
Big Jim: uh.. what? I have to make ~$200 on the river on average to compensate for a $96 turn peel? Are you high? [/ QUOTE ] Feel free to point out where you see an error in my calcs. I am not above making an occasional mistake. Also, yes, I was slightly high when I made that post. |
#47
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
[ QUOTE ]
Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$200 on the river, playing just for your draw. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't even possible if I had 0% equity. |
#48
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
[ QUOTE ]
I like the way you're thinking, Sean, but as others have said, I think you get looked up pretty light, here, and you also have a lot of reverse implied odds to worry about. Here's a little math: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 19.438% 17.70% 01.73% 740 72.50 { AsTd } Hand 1: 80.562% 78.83% 01.73% 3295 72.50 { TT-55, AcKc, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 76s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, 76o } Here's a pretty wide range with several hands where a lot of can be outdrawn, and a several that can get bluffed out. Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$150 on the river, playing just for your draw, as a 4:1 dog Due to the reverse implied odds of hitting your A, and the poor implied odds of hitting a T, unless you think he'll value bet thin here and call a c/r with worse, some significant amount of the time for this to be +EV, by itself. If you were relying on a pure bluff, you would be laying 356:231 or 1.54:1, and need him to fold ~60% of the time on the river. Given the awkwardness of your line, I think you get looked up pretty light here, not to mention there are a lot of good hands in his range here that are definitely not folding. A few decent scare cards can hit (KQ76), though. Combining the two, your EV is ($356-$EVhit):$231 If we ignore implied odds: EVHit = 0.2*$231 $356-($231*0.2):$231 You are laying: 1.34:1 on your bluff. which still needs to fold him out 57% of the time Using a little Bayesian analysis, and some rough estimation, on the above range, I figure he folds to a river bet roughly 40% of the time, even with a lot of floats. That might be a bit generous, as it does involve him folding top pair sometimes, and floating 20% of the time. In order to get odds favorable enough for this bluff to work, profitably, we need to lay 0.8:1 $356-EVhit = 231*0.8 $356-EVhit = 185 EVhit = $171 So, we need to make $171 on average, on the river, when we make our draw, for our bluff to be profitable. ~$45 of that comes from pot equity, so we need to make another $126 on the river, when we hit. If he's floating ~20% of the time, another $50 or so will come from that Looks a lot closer now. Breaking down all the various river cases is probably necessary, to get a really accurate idea, but this is a complicated enough calc, and I'm already screwing it up, so I'm not gonna try it, ATM. [/ QUOTE ] FMP(?) If there are any other errors in here, somebody else take over. I should also note that there is a significant amount of rounding error in my calcs. |
#49
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
[ QUOTE ]
^^^^^^^yep^^^^^^^ [/ QUOTE ] Maybe this guy should take over I'm sure he scrutinized the calculations carefully |
#50
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Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$200 on the river, playing just for your draw. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't even possible if I had 0% equity. [/ QUOTE ] Wow. |
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