Huge Value On THE TRIBE

[Feltin Licter]

Cleveland at +160 is a huge play......This is very close to a pick em' for the series


WORD-LIFE

[Mediocre_Player]

Crock has Boston at 59.7%.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland at +160 is a huge play......This is very close to a pick em' for the series


WORD-LIFE

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? NOT AT ALL.

[Feltin Licter]

I would bet Clev at +120 but luckily I have the Chowds buyin 160's

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland at +160 is a huge play......This is very close to a pick em' for the series


WORD-LIFE

[/ QUOTE ]

From posters on here/SE and other sites and the media constantly mentioning how 'close' this series is, I am starting to think that this line might not be that off. Boston usually gets a lot of public money (probably up there with NYY for over priced lines), yet, for this series everyone is saying how close it is going to be. My first instinct (even as BOS homer), and from what I can tell stats wise, is that this series is pretty close, with the slight edge going to BOS.

My concern is that everyone seems to 'feel' the same. Why would the books price CLE at +160 if everybody appears to be betting CLE and acting as if the books are giving away money. I don't doubt the line is off, but maybe not as much as I originally thought. I think part of the reason everyone likes CLE so much is due to not only winning their series 3-1, but that it was against the NYY. NYY was very unlucky during that series and CLE caught a lot of breaks.

I don't doubt CLE talent. Behind BOS, they are my favorite team in MLB, but I think there might be a lot of smoke and mirrors from the LDS. A LDS that if the ball bounced differently in a just a couple of situations, we would be going to a game 5.

craig

[Feltin Licter]

I felt the same way when the NYY/CLev line came out. I actually bet less than I planned b/c the line seemed so wack.

I just don't see how +160 is anything but a huge buy...

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
I felt the same way when the NYY/CLev line came out. I actually bet less than I planned b/c the line seemed so wack.

I just don't see how +160 is anything but a huge buy...

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not saying that it isn't a 'huge buy'. My concern is that the public thinks so.

Also, was just flipping through BBTN and in the chapter, 'Why doesn't Billy Beane's [censored] work in the Playoffs?', and it seems that BOS would have an edge in areas that are correlated with winning in the playoffs.

craig

[rja87]

The thing is, people are caught up in Cleveland beating the Yankees ( a very overrated team)..if they'd played anyone else in the LDS Boston would probably be considered a huge favorite. Now, I'm not saying Cleveland isn't a good team, but they have to win all 4 starts out of Sabathia and Carmona to win this for sure.

[Thremp]

This thread is so bad.


Yankees ~ BoSox >>> Indian > Angels


Bosox are significantly better than Indians. Please anyone who wants to give a Pap/Oka v Perez/Betan analysis since 1) It sucks 2) You live in fantasy land

rja,

You're terrible at this. Like your analysis doesn't have anything correct in it. From premises to conclusions. Atleast most people luck sack their way into one or the other. You manage to whiff on all. I will break it down.

1) Yankees being overrated: No. Best team in baseballs going forward.
2) Anyone else being a huge fave: They'd be a slightly bigger fave to the Angels and likely a shade ahead of Yanks due to some HFA.
3) have to win all 4 starts out of Sabathia/Carmona: Since there isn't at worst a 30% chance of Byrd or some other schmuck luck sacking their way into a win. Not to mention those two pitchers could see 5 starts between them...

[craig]

In my defense, as for sucking up the thread, I generally am pretty bad evaluating BOS and try to give their opponent as much of the benefit of the doubt as possible in order to not let my homerism get in the way. I decided to attempt to quickly analyze the series, even if I am being a bit homeristic.

CLE is definitely the inferior team to BOS.

NYY was pretty unlucky during the series and CLE was pretty lucky, despite bad decisions. One area CLE was lucky: They hit very well with two outs. I may have miscounted, but I have CLE as .514 BABIP (18/35) with two outs during the LDS. Not only is that unrealistic to maintain, but this MORE than helped negate their CS/bunts/put outs, which will (and did) cost them in the future.

BOS defense is better at 1b, 3b, (I think) middle infield, and RF. Coco is most likely not as good as Sizemore (defensively that is. He is definitely not as good on offense). Manny, well, despite Fenway making his defense look worse than it actually is, it is still pretty bad. But, he is a bad man and one of the best baseball players.

The line-up is definitely in BOS favor, particularly 1-6. BOS, as I thought was the case with CLE, does not give up outs very often and I think if CLE strategy is the same vs BOS as it was vs NYY, CLE might bunt/run themselves out of possible big innings.

I haven't looked at the starting pitching matchups in-depth, but I think CLE 1-2 is better than BOS 1-2 (BOS 1 being better than CLE 1 or 2).

Relief: If middle relief is a wash high leverage situations are not.

And to end my rambling: Looking at the entire season, and not just 4 games, BOS and CLE have the same record. BOS has played in the tougher division AND had actually underperformed by (give or take a game) 6 games. CLE, on the other hand, over-performed by (give or take) 5 games.

Anyways, I think CLE is a very good team, but the 'small edge' that BOS has is possibly being under-valued. I don't doubt that +160 may offer some value, but I don't think it is as much of a steal as everyone says (on top of that, if it was that good, I imagine the pros would have bet it down quite a bit already).

craig