Kelly Betting Question

[hedgie43]

Earlier today SIA had Rockies +1.5 -150 and both 5 Dimes and Pinnacle had the line Phillies -1.5 +151/Rockies +1.5 -161. I chose to bet the SIA line rather than arb it. For Kelly Betting purposes, should I be using +151/-151 or +156/-156 as the fair value, or somewhere in between?

[MyTurn2Raise]

i'd use 156 as the real value

[calmB4storm]

[ QUOTE ]
i used 156 as the real value

[/ QUOTE ]

[domer2]

Neither; handicap it to remove bettor biases.

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
Neither; use the market value to remove bettor biases.

[/ QUOTE ]

[hedgie43]

Tom,

Isn't -156/+156 the market value?

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

Isn't -156/+156 the market value?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, use -156/+156 as the no-vig line if the market line is -161/+151.

[Ganchrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

Isn't -156/+156 the market value?

[/ QUOTE ]No.

Taking the "true" market to be -161/+151 (a not completely unreasonable assumption given SIA's habit of shading lines) the fair price (aka the "mid-market" price or "zero-vig" market price) would actually be about ±154.83.

If you don't know how I calculated that you might want to check out my introduction to betting lines and percentages.

[MyTurn2Raise]

ty for stopping by Ganchrow and a nice link

I was just telling someone on AIM that the only reason I go to those forums are for your posts

[calmB4storm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

Isn't -156/+156 the market value?

[/ QUOTE ]No.

Taking the "true" market to be -161/+151 (a not completely unreasonable assumption given SIA's habit of shading lines) the fair price (aka the "mid-market" price or "zero-vig" market price) would actually be about ±154.83.

If you don't know how I calculated that you might want to check out my introduction to betting lines and percentages.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, thanks Ganchrow. Great stuff as always.