Crazy Meta-Game play....not for the faint of heart

[riverboatking]

commerce $20-$40NL.
i have ~13.5K, villian has ~8.5K.
villian is a very solid, tight, thinking player, who has a lot of respect for my game.
my image is that of an aggressive, winning player, who is willing to mix it up both preflop and postflop.

couple of limpers to villian in MP who makes it $240 two callers to me in CO i raise to $700 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

folded to villian who reraises to $2200 straight.
i am 99% certain he has two kings.
i push.

thoughts?

[amoeba]

pray he doesn't read this forum?

[etizzle]

Unless hes seen you do this before (I doubt he has), then he will almost certainly fold.

If he doesnt you will spike an ace

[gomberg]

How do you know he has 2 kings? I agree it's more likely than AA, but 99%? Do you know if he's capable of folding KK there? I assume he is.

Well - you're risking about $7800 to win about $3400 in the pot, giving your opponent 6300 : 11200 (almost 2:1). If he has KK and he calls, you'll win about 33% of the time (2:1 against).

So even if he calls, you'll get back about $3700, so you're only "really" risking $4100. So it looks like if he folds like 60% or so it's profitable (assuming other cold callers didn't have any aces).

So, you have to figure if he'll only fold 20% of the time or so (or never), you have to regain the equity from future hands - I'm assuming you'll get action on future preflop edge when your raises w/ high pocket pairs will not be respected.

[riverboatking]

one further question.
hypothetically, and i'm not saying he did, but if he did fold. do you show?

now, what if he folds the kings face up and says: "i'll give you $100 if you don't have aces" do you show the four and only the four?

[gomberg]

I'm not sure I show. It's a very profitable move that will come up once in a while and if people know you're capable of it, they won't really fold to preflop reraises by you... but at the same time, is this what you want? You may be able to get some huge edge later by playing AA in a similar fashion, but you'll only get 80% of that money while if this bluff works once in a while, you get a risk-free $3k or so. So it depends on the frequencey you can do a move like this as well as not get caught.

So, my conclusion, is that I don't know [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[cero_z]

Hi riverboatking,

Whoa. This is risky, man. I've contemplated this move in the past, like when I raise with JJ or AK, get re-raised by what I feel sure is KK or AA, the stacks are deep, and my opponent is good. I always settle on the notion that almost nobody can lay down Kings pre-flop, even when they're very sure they're up against AA.

In theory, though, if people actually behave pre-flop the way most of the 2+2 regulars in the bigger online NL games (5-10 and up) claim to, it makes sense to push any time you have an Ace in your hand, and maybe just about any time you have less than KK. My problem is, I just don't believe people are laying down Kings as often as they claim, if ever.

I do realize that some good players can do this; I actually just laid them down recently in a 25-50 NL game during my time out in Vegas. I (5000) opened for 200 UTG, UTG+1 (2000)cold-called, and LP (20,000) insta-pushed all-in when it was his turn. It was the first hand I'd voluntarily played in 1 round at the table, and I was certain I had an "a little over my head, very tight" image. My opponent was very aggressive, but also very good, and I reasoned that he "knew" I had a big hand, and was just hoping it was Kings. He later claimed QQ (I folded fairly quickly and didn't tell anyone what I had), but I think that's only about 10% likely at best.

Anyway, I'm curious to hear how it played out. Also, aren't the aisles kind of crowded at Commerce? How do you get the wheelbarrow you carry your balls in up to the table?

[-Skeme-]

I don't show. In fact, I'd probably want him under the impression that he made a good laydown.

[cero_z]

Hi rbk,

[ QUOTE ]
now, what if he folds the kings face up and says: "i'll give you $100 if you don't have aces" do you show the four and only the four?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about this as well, and I think you should show. First of all, it's way more fun. Second, you may tilt him. Third (and this is actually the most important), you're not going to get away with this bluff a second time against this guy, anyway, whether you show or not. He's not going to fold Kings pre-flop against you in the future, unless you show him Aces this time (and maybe not even then). It's got to be way more profitable to plant that seed of doubt for the future hand where you have the nuts and make a very strong move with it.

[gomberg]

ok cero, you convinced me - I'd show [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]