Huge Value On THE TRIBE

[DCJ311]

That doesn't make sense.

[calmB4storm]

[TomCowley]

The only danger in full kelly is that you're continually overestimating your edges. If you make a conservative estimate of your edge, and you have a realistic definition of your bankroll (rent due in 3 days is not part of your bankroll), failing to bet full kelly when possible is like hating money.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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DCJ,

So we established you don't like Kelly Criterion because you don't know its RoR. And then when I bet 5% of my BR flat on each game with Assani's friend (for low limits) I can rub it into your face. Brilliant.

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Right, what you are doing works well for someone who doesn't bet $1000-2000 a game on a 100k bankroll in order to pay all their bills. Just hope that you're the first sports bettor in history to not go on a 2-18 run at some point. Who cares that a bad weekend can turn a $5k bankroll into a $500 one, there's no risk of ruin!

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm...Thremp does bet that much

this isn't a $10 bettor


the only reason not to bet full kelly is if one cannot properly estimate their edge. Many sportsbettors have been known to overestimate, so they bet kelly/2 or/3 or /4. If one doesn't fall victim to those errors in judgment, full kelly is the best.

There is no risk of ruin if used properly.

[TomG]

See the problem with betting full Kelly is its volatility. Well, ladies and gentleman, I have the solution to that. Let me introduce the "Kelly Martingale." The martingale controls variance while the Kelly maximizes growth. For example, start by betting 1/8 Kelly. If win, continue to bet 1/8 Kelly. If you lose, place your next wager at 1/4 Kelly. If win, back to 1/8 Kelly. If you lose again, bet 1/2 Kelly. etc, etc. Robusto!

[MCS]

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"Kelly Martingale."

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Your system, brilliant in my opinion.

[MicroBob]

crap. I've lost my last 3 bets and according to Kelly-Martingale I think I have to bet 85% of my bankroll on tonight's game.

Go San Jose St!!!

[Thremp]

I love it. Line limits are typically more of worry with limited outs than over shooting your Kelly criterion for a good number of people.

[sublime]

a proponent of FULL KELLY telling other people they don't know what they are doing.

L
O
L

lololololol


ok im done now, good luck!

[TomCowley]

Sublime: Go look at the ALCS prop thread, assume the odds of +110 are available (as they were when I bet, not anymore), and explain what percentage of my bankroll I should bet, and why your answer is better than betting more or betting less. Good luck.