Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Thremp,

The Poisson distribution can be derived as a limiting case of the binomial distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

Engrish. I scammed my way out of my stats classes for my finance/econ degree and faked the rest.

I suggested Poisson since there are dozens of free calcs on the net. And also it seems to make sense.

Note: Work on stats stuff soon.

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thremp,

The Poisson distribution can be derived as a limiting case of the binomial distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

Engrish. I scammed my way out of my stats classes for my finance/econ degree and faked the rest.

I suggested Poisson since there are dozens of free calcs on the net. And also it seems to make sense.

Note: Work on stats stuff soon.

[/ QUOTE ]
The Poisson distribution becomes a good approximation of the binomial distribution as your sample size increases.

[calmB4storm]

[ QUOTE ]
Note: Work on stats stuff soon.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ditto.

Luckily I'm taking a Probability Theory class right now. I just checked my book, and we should cover both Poisson and Binomial Distribution within the next week or two.

[calmB4storm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thremp,

The Poisson distribution can be derived as a limiting case of the binomial distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

Engrish. I scammed my way out of my stats classes for my finance/econ degree and faked the rest.

I suggested Poisson since there are dozens of free calcs on the net. And also it seems to make sense.

Note: Work on stats stuff soon.

[/ QUOTE ]
The Poisson distribution becomes a good approximation of the binomial distribution as your sample size increases.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like This, Like This, Like This, Like This,
Baby Do You Want It Like This.

[rjp]

I'm trying to figure out the easiest way to calculate grand salami odds based on each individual game's odds, but I'm not a combinatorics genius so it's going to take some time.

That said, 5.9% seems way too high, but I've got no data to prove or disprove this.

[NajdorfDefense]

6% chance of 45 goals seems high.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to figure out the easiest way to calculate grand salami odds based on each individual game's odds, but I'm not a combinatorics genius so it's going to take some time.

[/ QUOTE ]

this could be done with about a days work on a spreadsheet

[rjp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to figure out the easiest way to calculate grand salami odds based on each individual game's odds, but I'm not a combinatorics genius so it's going to take some time.

[/ QUOTE ]

this could be done with about a days work on a spreadsheet

[/ QUOTE ]

A quick iterative solution came to me while sitting in Calc III class, so I can code it up now. lol [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

CDS last nite, Calc 3 tonite, what's tomorrow - Unified Field Theory or Superstrings?

[bevo_stevo]

[ QUOTE ]
Holy Sh*t! Can someone check this?

Using the 5.9197% chance of a push, and assuming Pinny's line is efficient:
<ul type="square">[*]Chance of 46 or More = 110 / 210 = 52.38%[*]Chance of Exactly 45 = 5.9197%[*]Chance of 44 or Less = 1 - (.5238 + .059197) = 41.70%[*]True Line on over 45 = -126[*]Betting on a -110 line, the optimum full kelly stake = 6.93% of bankroll, and expected ROI = 6.3%[/list]Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Poisson is a good start, but I've created databases for several sports and have found that the standard deviation on these things tend to be a bit higher than what the Poisson/Binomial distribution gives you.

In other words, take the number that Excel poops out and multiply it by about .8, and you'll be a bit closer to the actual push percentage (for 45). Since there will be more "spread-outness" in the numbers, the advantage for 46 or more will decrease as well.