WCOOP 14: Possibly bad play of JJ with analysis.

JDalla · #1 09-23-2007, 08:38 PM

Villian is a winning player.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB (t16190)
BB (t17160)
UTG :#A500AF(StuMan123)/ (t26310)
UTG+1 (t16210)
MP1 (t85382)
MP2 (t18870)
Hero (t19196)
CO (t18299)
Button (t17075)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG :#A500AF(StuMan123)/ raises to t1550, 3 folds, Hero calls t1550, 4 folds.

Flop: (t4000) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
StuMan123 bets t2200, Hero calls t2200.

Turn: (t8400) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
StuMan123 INSTAchecks, Hero bets t2400, StuMan123 raises to t6000, Hero calls t3600.

River: (t20400) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
StuMan123 FASTchecks, Hero bets t9446 (All-In), StuMan123 calls t9446.

Final Pot: t39292

My thinking:

PF: JJ wooo
Flop: Not a bad flop, I'll call.
Turn, part1: He instachecked so he probably is behind.
Turn, part2: He thinks my range is wide and I could have been floating the flop, and he knows I might reason "turn part1," so he checkraises. I'll call and see how he plays the river.
River: He checks. Surely he'd value bet (or push) a Queen or AA here. He is probably either given up or hoping to showdown Ax, KK or JJ-. I have enough chips so if I push here he is probably folding any ace and KK, considering my previous action. I push.

Thoughts?

Eagles · #2 09-23-2007, 09:14 PM

The turn bet is pretty bad. The river shove is beyond terrible.

JDalla · #3 09-23-2007, 09:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The turn bet is pretty bad. The river shove is beyond terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I check the turn, I have a hard time calling an A or K on the river.

If I check the river I lose to a fair number of hands that I'm pretty sure would fold to the shove.

I don't like the plays much either, but I'm not sure exactly where in my thinking I screwed up here.

JDalla · #4 09-23-2007, 09:18 PM

... and I would basically never make these bets if he didn't check so fast.

Bond18 · #5 09-23-2007, 10:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The turn bet is pretty bad. The river shove is beyond terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea agreed, just check behind on turn and if he bets snap him off and if he checks bet and hope to get called by an A (assuming river isn't an A like it was here.)

As far as the river i don't think this can ever succeed.

PhatPots · #6 09-23-2007, 10:11 PM

I think the shove on the river is bad. When you call the turn, you are basically thinking that he is raising you with air.

On the river, he gives up and checks to you, and you hope to make him fold Ax? Once you call his turn raise, he probably thinks you have a queen. Fine, he gives up on the river, but why do we think he has to have KK or Ax? He could just as easily have TT if he is as tricky as you say he is.

Preflop: The problem, is that I would normally raise JJ preflop here and define my hand. But fine, you have position

Flop: When he bets, if you think JJ is good you should raise here and define your hand. I might call, but usually I will be calling when the stack sizes are awkward and I want to keep the pot small.

Turn: He checks to you, and you don't want to give him a free card to catch maybe an A or K so you bet. He raises and you think he is FOS? I would normally fold this, very few players are playing KK this way or AA this way, you can mostly rule those out.

Mench · #7 09-24-2007, 02:03 AM

check back turn and look to get to showdown.

getballed · #8 09-24-2007, 01:02 PM

I would check turn here. Fold to a bet on the river. Looks like a high pocket pair.

mrjetguy · #9 09-24-2007, 01:13 PM

turn is meh, but the river is the real problem. I think he's almost certainly put you on a pp at this point, so I don't think he folds as much as you think. Just check it.