Downswings.

I don`t play High stakes, however I have played about 250k hands since I started playing online last year. I have never had a loosing month and moved up thru levels pretty fast. I had my 1st big loose beginning of august when PS introduced HU tables, since then I have played almost 50k hands and with the expection of 5k hands or so things have just run insane. First the downswing and then the breakeven stretch. The worst thing is that IMO I`m playing better then ever before and due to the downswing I`m even playing lower thenn my usual game. I always seem to be getting the 2nd best hand, and a some really bad suckouts. As you described I can`t find anything wrong with my game. I review the biggest net looses and wins I had for each session and it looks ok, beside some small mistakes. This can become absolutely frustrating, and I wish you good luck.

[stephenNUTS]

You cannot compare HU vs.fullring variance(or even 6-max for that matter) on an even plane.

Its not even on the same planet!

[Fight Club]

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I just wanted to add that I had an 84 buy in up swing in May and won everyday except for one. In June I lost the first 9 days in a row and got absolutely crushed. I was down almost 45 buy ins in 50k hands. I think these swings will happen to everyone if they play Millions and millions of hands over their lifetime.

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The bigger the upswing, the bigger the eventual downswing usually is. Running that well probably changed how you played, so when you ran average/bad again you played losing poker for a while.

[fitnessfreak]

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Hey Lefort,

Lots of good points. Along the lines of what you were saying about variance making larger upswings and downswings more likely, I think people who run very good before they run very bad are conditioned to think of the running good period as closer to "normal" than the running bad period. This can be a dangerous trap if you expect things to eventually revert to a place you consider normal, but which is actually an unlikely hot streak.

Yeah I totally agree. And to make matters worse, I think a very large portion of the player pool started out their poker careers running hot. Because otherwise, they would have busto'd a few times and quit before they "blossomed" into real players. I think this concept has been discussed before... kind of like a "survival of the luckiest" until people develop the knowledge/skills necessary to stay in the game, then from there we all get "normal" luck.


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its disturbing how accurately these two posts sum up my first 4 months playing online poker seriously. ran like god in my first month and a half, built an oversized bankroll, and then ran like absolute [censored] for the next month, figuring that i was just running bad and ignoring all the leaks in my game.

thankfully ive managed to turn that around and become more realistic in terms of my skill level and how i approach playing poker. in hindsight i think that learning to deal with negative variance and being able to work through it and not tilt or give up is the most important and most difficult skill to develop. it definitely was for me.

[leatherass]

Tomson,

Very very long downswings are very very possible and almost surely will happen at some point. I have never allowed myself a downswing for such a long time as if I start running realy really bad I'll play as low as $200nl if that's where I need to play in order to find someone I can beat considering my terrible luck. But I have "run bad" and been horribly under expectation for 300k+ hands before. Variance can be sick. Of course it isn't all bad luck. And it isn't necessarily bad play either. What I call it is microtiliting. I think when you are running very bad for a very long time you don't necessarily play bad but mayb enot your best. I mean how could you? We are not all robots where we can just ignore the fact that we are getting [censored] on 5 tables at once in all in pots. So when that happens you may not necessariyl tilt and shove all in everywhere but you may not play the next few hands to your potnetial. So in effect running bad compunds the problem and a talispin occurs. Say if your expectation is 4bb per hundred. We all know that 2-3bb differential per 100 in a 100k hand stretch happens to everyone from time to time. In your favor and against. But let's say when it is against you you probably also microtilt like 1 or maybve 2bb/100 as a result. So you can be like 5 bb/100 off in a 100k hand stretch if you add the two toegther and there you have a long downswing. As long as you feel you are playing well then [censored] everyone else. Most people haven't experienced one and they are clueless morons and always will be until it happens to them. Take it from me. I have play over 4 million hands of poker and I feel like I am well qualified on this subject. I have had two very long stretches of running bad in my career. Ones where I was off by like 2ish BB per hundred ofer 300k+ hands. It happens, it doesn't happen often but it happens. I also know another really good player who makes over $1 a hand lifetime and currently has only made $50k in his last 180k hands. He says it has happened to him before too. Keep your chin up and my advice would be to swallow your pride and play a little lower. You can make a lot of money and you don't need to play 5/10 to do it. Just play a little lower and regain some confidence and then moce back up and tear it up. Good luck

Leatherass

[tagtastic]

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We are not all robots

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I have play over 4 million hands of poker

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We're not all robots, but I'm pretty sure you are.

[tomsOn]

Thanks Leather, I really appreciate your opinion.

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Just play a little lower and regain some confidence

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That's what I've been doing and probably will for the next 2 months at least.

Variance is a bitch.

[leatherass]

np

[trambopoline]

Tomson, I dont have much to say aside from I remember you played a very solid game when I used to play alot with you (UB, about 8 months ago at 5-10). IMO you're defnitely a winning player from what i can recall. Id highly suggest what others said about moving down, even if you're bankrolled for higher levels. GL in future

[insyder19]

You guys always forget that it depends too much on your opponents, if you have more weak opponents (euro sites) than americans on stars or full tilt you are making more money when you have a run and losing less when you cannot make a pair because they don't know how to bet, etc.

Plus weak opponents are more likely to give you the right odds to play more draws or are easier to bluff.

Say brunson plays vs brunson, its hard to make money either way.