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#221
10-02-2007, 08:48 AM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how the other way is flawed - it should allow you to make better winrate estimates without any bias. if you don't think this is true i'd like to hear why. [/ QUOTE ] I explained it above to scwhza. Imagine a HU hand where you put $150 in preflop with KK (vs AA) (with 20% equity) and your final $50 on the flop when you flop a set with 90% equity. According to the full pot method, if you lose, you will have gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$360. Yet in reality, you've only really gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$90, which is your expected earn from the flop action. So using this method can overestimate the magnitude of your luck significantly. You can see how this would affect setminers and the like where flop equity is usually very different to preflop equity. The way I do it ignores this portion of luck, so the number is more reflective of actual luck. If you want to use this kind of method, you're better off going with the "all in before river" checkbox on the analysis tab. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] how are you handling multiway all in situations where one of the other players folds after you are all in? [/ QUOTE ] This is done incorrectly, and can skew the results for people who regularly short stack. It's discussed above. It'll be fixed in the next version with an option to exclude these situations. I'm assuming the effect isn't large, since both curtains and ImsaKidd report running roughly equal, but it may be for you. It shouldn't affect full stackers at all. [/ QUOTE ] i don't think that's necessarily true. it won't affect full stacks often, but when it does the pots could be very large. i don't think the difference is negligible if you're trying to make winrate estimates. [/ QUOTE ] But the effect is fractional and extremely rare with full stacks, because 300BB will have gone in already by the time three people are all-in. These kind of 3-way pots are already very rare, and situations where someone folds after putting that much money in are even rarer. When they do, they usually didn't affect the equity that much anyway. You'll see in the next version (with the option to exclude) that the effect is basically non existent. I don't have enough short stack hands to tell you how often it becomes an issue with short stackers. 
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#222
10-02-2007, 12:18 PM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
I explained it above to scwhza. Imagine a HU hand where you put $150 in preflop with KK (vs AA) (with 20% equity) and your final $50 on the flop when you flop a set with 90% equity. According to the full pot method, if you lose, you will have gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$360. Yet in reality, you've only really gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$90, which is your expected earn from the flop action. So using this method can overestimate the magnitude of your luck significantly. You can see how this would affect setminers and the like where flop equity is usually very different to preflop equity. The way I do it ignores this portion of luck, so the number is more reflective of actual luck. If you want to use this kind of method, you're better off going with the "all in before river" checkbox on the analysis tab. [/ QUOTE ] that's just one example. consider the case where you put $199 in with KK vs K2o preflop. the flop comes rags and you each put in $1. turn and river come 22. with your method you've only gotten unlucky to the tune of $2. in actuality you've gotten unlucky to the tune of almost $400. i don't have time to figure out how to prove it right now, but accounting for all of the money is a better way to estimate your luck. the all in before river calculates sklansky bux per street, right? that's a very poor estimate of luck in all but the very short term. it has a lot of bias, while pretending all the money went in on the last street has zero bias.
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#223
10-02-2007, 12:23 PM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
I explained it above to scwhza. Imagine a HU hand where you put $150 in preflop with KK (vs AA) (with 20% equity) and your final $50 on the flop when you flop a set with 90% equity. According to the full pot method, if you lose, you will have gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$360. Yet in reality, you've only really gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$90, which is your expected earn from the flop action. So using this method can overestimate the magnitude of your luck significantly. You can see how this would affect setminers and the like where flop equity is usually very different to preflop equity. The way I do it ignores this portion of luck, so the number is more reflective of actual luck. If you want to use this kind of method, you're better off going with the "all in before river" checkbox on the analysis tab. [/ QUOTE ] Why not do the math street by street? Calculate the pre-flop money as going in bad and the post-flop money as going in good. Or do I misunderstand what's happening?
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#224
10-02-2007, 02:33 PM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I explained it above to scwhza. Imagine a HU hand where you put $150 in preflop with KK (vs AA) (with 20% equity) and your final $50 on the flop when you flop a set with 90% equity. According to the full pot method, if you lose, you will have gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$360. Yet in reality, you've only really gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$90, which is your expected earn from the flop action. So using this method can overestimate the magnitude of your luck significantly. You can see how this would affect setminers and the like where flop equity is usually very different to preflop equity. The way I do it ignores this portion of luck, so the number is more reflective of actual luck. If you want to use this kind of method, you're better off going with the "all in before river" checkbox on the analysis tab. [/ QUOTE ] that's just one example. consider the case where you put $199 in with KK vs K2o preflop. the flop comes rags and you each put in $1. turn and river come 22. with your method you've only gotten unlucky to the tune of $2. in actuality you've gotten unlucky to the tune of almost $400. i don't have time to figure out how to prove it right now, but accounting for all of the money is a better way to estimate your luck. the all in before river calculates sklansky bux per street, right? that's a very poor estimate of luck in all but the very short term. it has a lot of bias, while pretending all the money went in on the last street has zero bias. [/ QUOTE ] Both calcs are included. Statistics > Equity Adjusted is the "By street method" Luck graphs > "All ins with total winnings" is all-ins only.
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#225
10-02-2007, 02:41 PM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
Both calcs are included. Statistics > Equity Adjusted is the "By street method" Luck graphs > "All ins with total winnings" is all-ins only. [/ QUOTE ] no you do not understand.
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#226
10-02-2007, 10:51 PM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
For people interested in the theoretical aspects of the PokerEV software, this may be of interest:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post12336590
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#227
10-03-2007, 10:07 AM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
I'm still confused. lets say top set versus bottom set on flop. They each put in $2 on this street. Turn gives bottom set quads and they go all in for $8 more.
Will the player with top set be shown as having negative sklansky bucks here even though it was clearly -ev for bottom set to draw to quads?
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#228
10-05-2007, 07:13 AM
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Problem with replayer
Great program! Except I now have to give up my "I'm down because I'm unlucky"-excuse and go for the "I'm getting coolered so much!"-excuse instead. Please do not add stats for coolers! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
I do have a problem with the replayer though - when I click the 'replay'-button, the window comes up with the background and knobs and buttons, but there's an error-box saying: "Unhandled exception has occoured in your application. If you click continue the application will ignore this error and attempt to continue. If you click quit it will close immediatly. Input string was not in a correct format." There's a 'Details'-box with the following info: _______________________________________ See the end of this message for details on invoking just-in-time (JIT) debugging instead of this dialog box. ************** Exception Text ************** System.FormatException: Input string was not in a correct format. at System.Number.StringToNumber(String str, NumberStyles options, NumberBuffer& number, NumberFormatInfo info, Boolean parseDecimal) at System.Number.ParseDecimal(String value, NumberStyles options, NumberFormatInfo numfmt) at System.Decimal.Parse(String s) at Libraries.x6eb9ef1cbdee20bc.get_amount(String amount) at Libraries.x9cdfc9a5afb21de7.x5fdfe5e860204e09(Stri ng x5b1ef062c4567988, xd7c953c7064bedd6 x69df3052e31edb6b) at Libraries.x9cdfc9a5afb21de7.x5a62afdaa6c79583(Stri ng xe770dc7982c46b0a, xd7c953c7064bedd6 x69df3052e31edb6b) at HHReplayer.x1bd52eade62c65df.xee33d925ed27f2d6(Str ing x5b1ef062c4567988) at PokerEV.xaa4f033827d75b4d.x07f64dfa6c4a4de9() at PokerEV.xaa4f033827d75b4d.x7beadfa3bb659a39(Object xe0292b9ed559da7d, EventArgs xfbf34718e704c6bc) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.OnClick(EventArgs e) at System.Windows.Forms.Button.OnClick(EventArgs e) at System.Windows.Forms.Button.OnMouseUp(MouseEventAr gs mevent) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WmMouseUp(Message& ; m, MouseButtons button, Int32 clicks) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.ButtonBase.WndProc(Message&am p; m) at System.Windows.Forms.Button.WndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.ControlNativeWindow.O nMessage(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.ControlNativeWindow.W ndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.NativeWindow.Callback(IntPtr hWnd, Int32 msg, IntPtr wparam, IntPtr lparam) ************** Loaded Assemblies ************** mscorlib Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/Microsoft.NET/Frame...7/mscorlib.dll ---------------------------------------- PokerEV Assembly Version: 1.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 1.0.0.0 CodeBase: file:///D:/Program%20Files/PokerEV/PokerEV.exe ---------------------------------------- Microsoft.VisualBasic Assembly Version: 8.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 8.0.50727.42 (RTM.050727-4200) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/M...isualBasic.dll ---------------------------------------- System Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/S...089/System.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Windows.Forms Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/S...dows.Forms.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Drawing Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/S...em.Drawing.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Runtime.Remoting Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/S...e.Remoting.dll ---------------------------------------- HHReplayer Assembly Version: 1.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 1.0.0.0 CodeBase: file:///D:/Program%20Files/PokerEV/HHReplayer.EXE ---------------------------------------- System.Data Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_32/Sys...ystem.Data.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Xml Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/S...System.Xml.dll ---------------------------------------- ZedGraph Assembly Version: 5.0.8.21916 Win32 Version: 5.0.8.21916 CodeBase: file:///D:/Program%20Files/PokerEV/ZedGraph.DLL ---------------------------------------- Libraries Assembly Version: 1.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 1.0.0.0 CodeBase: file:///D:/Program%20Files/PokerEV/Libraries.DLL ---------------------------------------- ChartFX.Lite Assembly Version: 6.0.839.0 Win32 Version: 6.0.839.0 CodeBase: file:///D:/Program%20Files/PokerEV/ChartFX.Lite.DLL ---------------------------------------- Accessibility Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.42 (RTM.050727-4200) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/A...essibility.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Configuration Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_MSIL/S...figuration.dll ---------------------------------------- Npgsql Assembly Version: 1.0.5000.0 Win32 Version: 1.0.5000.0 CodeBase: file:///D:/Program%20Files/PokerEV/Npgsql.DLL ---------------------------------------- System.Transactions Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_32/Sys...ansactions.dll ---------------------------------------- System.EnterpriseServices Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.832 (QFE.050727-8300) CodeBase: file:///C:/WINNT/assembly/GAC_32/Sys...seServices.dll ---------------------------------------- BBPHandEval Assembly Version: 1.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 1.0.0.0 CodeBase: file:///D:/Program%20Files/PokerEV/BBPHandEval.DLL ---------------------------------------- ************** JIT Debugging ************** To enable just-in-time (JIT) debugging, the .config file for this application or computer (machine.config) must have the jitDebugging value set in the system.windows.forms section. The application must also be compiled with debugging enabled. For example: <configuration> <system.windows.forms jitDebugging="true" /> </configuration> When JIT debugging is enabled, any unhandled exception will be sent to the JIT debugger registered on the computer rather than be handled by this dialog box. ___________________________________________ Is this fixable? I'm on a Win 2K machine and getting the same message for both Full Tilt and Stars hhs. I get the same error message if I copy a hh and click the 'Run single HH from clipboard' button in the replayer also.
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#229
10-05-2007, 02:56 PM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
I'm still confused. lets say top set versus bottom set on flop. They each put in $2 on this street. Turn gives bottom set quads and they go all in for $8 more. Will the player with top set be shown as having negative sklansky bucks here even though it was clearly -ev for bottom set to draw to quads? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. [ QUOTE ] I do have a problem with the replayer though - when I click the 'replay'-button, the window comes up with the background and knobs and buttons, but there's an error-box saying: [/ QUOTE ] It's probably related to the local date. The parsers for the hand history replayer are reworked in the next version (out before October 15) so this shouldn't occur any more.
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#230
10-05-2007, 04:18 PM
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Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
It's probably related to the local date. The parsers for the hand history replayer are reworked in the next version (out before October 15) so this shouldn't occur any more. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks, I'll wait for the next release and see what happens.
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Linear Mode
