Is being in the bottom 3 actually helpful?

[mynamewastaken]

But just looking at your data contestants are 6-3 going home after NOT being in the bottom 3 the week before vs going home the next week.

Wow that made no sense. Melissa could not be said to be a surprise bootee (from this data) since she was the 1st one gone. Kevin left the next week, he was safe in top12. Lisa left the next week the slow death route, then Mandisa was a surprise bootee... Altogether Kevin, Mandisa, Bucky, Kellie, Chris and Elliot all got booted the week after appearing in the bottom 3, whereas only Lisa, Ace and Paris failedto rally.

This suggests to me that being in the bottom 3 (or equivalent) has at least a small rallying effect, in that there is a strong correlation between being in the bottom 3 and being safe the next week.

Whether this can actually sustain you in the long run, I doubt, but that's a much more difficult question to answer. But I would not bet on Richardson going home this week. The rally effect should buy him a little time.

[GoRedBirds]

Also, people who may not vote at all because the contestant they like to watch is considered safe may be motivated to pick up the phone and vote if their contestant is shown to be in danger. I think the proof of this is the increase in number of total votes from show to show throughout a particular season. I have no proof for this, but I'd be willing to bet that the voting increases after a "shocking" elimination.