($55) 18 person SNG 1st hand - value within shark scope??

pokerlaw · #1 12-15-2006, 02:13 AM

OK - so this is a $55 turbo 18 person. I like to start off fast in these and I like my preflop raise, although in a 9 person game I think its very not optimal. Anyway, here is the hand:

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1500)
UTG+1a (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)
Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
Hero (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t20, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t20, CO folds, Button calls t20, SB calls t10, Hero raises to t100, UTG+1 calls t80, MP3 folds, Button calls t80, SB folds

Flop: (t360) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t200, UTG+1 folds, Button raises to t400,

OK - now I am questioning his move. I certainly represented a good hand so far. Does he have AT or something? I don't think he has an overpair cause just about anyone would have raised pre-flop (either originally or to my reraise) with one. He took awhile to reraise me, and I am thinking its either he is making a move, or he had the nuts. So I chose to sharkscope him.

here are his results - 409 games played, down $7,301 with a -43% ROI and $43 avg stake.

he is obviously totally awful, and I deduce that he is FULL OF SH*T.

Hero raises to t1400 (All-in)

thoughts?

Turn Prophet · #2 12-15-2006, 02:17 AM

Well, chances are he is bad based on the SS stats, but the question is, WHY is he bad? Is it because he folds too often, or because he CALLS too often? Some very bad players will call you here with A-high or a pair like 22 or 33 (yes, even in $55's), which would make this bluff -EV.

pokerlaw · #3 12-15-2006, 02:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, chances are he is bad based on the SS stats, but the question is, WHY is he bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

that is a very good point and something I debated before pushing. the way that I was thinking, the timing of his raise coupled with the (IMO) uncoordinated board both told me that it was a bluff and that I would get a fold the vast majority of the time.

LordTacohead · #4 12-15-2006, 05:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, chances are he is bad based on the SS stats, but the question is, WHY is he bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

that is a very good point and something I debated before pushing. the way that I was thinking, the timing of his raise coupled with the (IMO) uncoordinated board both told me that it was a bluff and that I would get a fold the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like such a fundamental error in judgment that I'm finding it hard to explain why. How about this: by playing this way, you're playing his game. Terrible players like villain willingly stack off with top pair or less. They bluff with nothing at all against players representing a strong hand. They bloat the pot preflop with mediocre holdings out of position. Postflop they get attached to their hands and don't have the sense to get away before the roof caves in. Etc., etc.

We don't make money by playing their game. We make money by playing our game. We let them make their mistakes, and then we beat them senseless. A villain this bad will limp A2o, raise your c-bet, then call your push with ace-high. This is absolutely wonderful for us when we actually hold KK, but not so much holding an unimproved KJ. Rather than exploiting his mistakes, you're actually making his (generally terrible) strategy the correct one.

Hercules · #5 12-15-2006, 06:32 AM

Great Post, you perfectly wrote together what i failed to explain in a good way like you did...
Good reasoning, i exspecially like your point about "Hero playing the game of the fish, thus making his strategy correct"...

MikeMcQ1 · #6 12-15-2006, 02:18 AM

Ummm, no pair, no draw on a (practically) drawless board. And the worse donkies won't fold any part of that board. A good player might fold a T, but he wouldn't have raised it in the first place. I don't see how raising KJo OOP is any good either.

pokerlaw · #7 12-15-2006, 02:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how raising KJo OOP is any good either.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would keep in mind that its not totally the same as OOP when you reraise PF and then respond to a reraise after you bet. itsn't that how you play KK? but granted you were right when you say FE is lower than normal against a donk

Hercules · #8 12-15-2006, 04:10 AM

Ugly,ugly all in...i have to be honest. You did scope him, got the information...and you still push?! His range is A high to bottom pair...believe me...you beat NOTHING, and you can certainly expect him to call. Or how else do you think he`s got that awesome ROI ?! I mean, loosing to the rake or slightly -roi is acceptable for a decent player (running bad etc.). But your Villain is obviously a total FISH. Don`t take me wrong, i am the guy who WAS doing these kind of fancy moves on fishes. And believe me, they call you with jack high...So i just pass the advice on, which was given to me. Dont burn your fingers with fish

PF: I can`t help you, if you like your PF raise...Maybe a push would be better (if you are so bored and wanna start fancy plays). But the usual PF line is a Check/fold

I had to to learn the lesson "don`t bluff fish"...hopefully you don`t have to pay to much...

GL, hercules

@turnprohet: really good thought to think why he is bad. Of course he COULD be to nitty. But with these scope-data look more like a calling-station...
And nits usually have a positive ROI (like we 2+2...and MikeMQ1!!!!)

AllinDan · #9 12-15-2006, 04:34 AM

ugh. first of all I hate your pf raise. I know that you don't want to argue it, but I think it's very very bad.

edit: seriously, what are you trying to do with this raise? raising pre destroys your chances to get value the times you do flop a K or a J as you've represented a stronger hand than you have. You're just setting yourself up to NEED to battle over pots with nothing.

[ QUOTE ]
I would keep in mind that its not totally the same as OOP when you reraise PF and then respond to a reraise after you bet. itsn't that how you play KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

Theres all kinds of problems with this statement (including that I don't know what your point is) but mostly there is a HUGE difference in the value of KK and KJo oop. Yes you can raise oop with KK but that's because you like almost all flops and on most flops you'll welcome a reraise on your flop bet. With KJ, if you flop nothing and bet and get raised you are lost.

edit: actually you aren't lost, you should fold, but you've created an expensive hand when you should have lost 20 chips.

As for this particular hand, I expect the avg -43% villain to look you up here with ANY pair and some A high hands as well. If you want to decide that his minraise is just testing you and show him your balls are big, fine, but this hand is gross.

zoobird · #10 12-15-2006, 07:35 AM

Somewhat off-topic question that this post raised for me. I mostly play 18 man turbo SNGs. Until I saw this post, I assumed I had to post hands from them in the MTT forum, even though I think they play much more like STTs. Can any of the regulars here confirm that its ok if I start posting some of my 18 man turbo hands in the STT forum?