200 NL - Flopped top set. How do i get maximum value?

[uminchu]

if villain has overpair here then leading the flop is the best way to get it in, you can lead call a raise probly best on this board ( you rep smaller pairs) and then bet the river, or you can cr the flop trying to rep a pair of Jacks or so and hope he has QQ+ which you do believe since you have a read, and then you can get it all in. The failure here is check calling the FLOP imo, its so dry that he will raise all pairs he reraised with pre and may even peel AK. I think check call is the worst line possible

[mistere45]

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How do you figure? We give ourselves a chance to win a bet and a raise from QQ by c/ring. He can call a c/r with QQ for sure and with Kings and Aces, he almost certainly doesn't fold to a c/r. And again, the purpose of c/ring isn't "to maximize value from QQ". It's to maximize value from his range which includes a bunch of no-pair hands that won't call a bet but might bet themselves.

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If he is willing to call a c/r on the river, why is he checking behind on the turn? Do you think this opponent sees himself as trapping with QQ or JJ? wouldnt our c/r be viewed as a very strong hand? Yes, I agree checking the river induces some bluffing. But wouldnt a river bet induce a bluff over the top at times too, given our check on the turn? We get a much larger amount of money in on a bluff, albeit less often. Weigh that against the loss of money we dont get from Q-Q and J-J when they check behind on the river. Its guess work for which line maximizes profits, i just hate leaving it up to an opponent in position to bet my hand for me, especially if he hasnt shown much aggression in the hand. He either isnt confident in his hand strength, or views himself as trapping. Both suggest we lead the river for a value bet.

[AllTheCheese]

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If he is willing to call a c/r on the river, why is he checking behind on the turn?


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If he's willing to call a bet on the river (i.e. if he has JJ+), why is he checking behind the turn? People often PC a paired board with middle overpairs.

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Do you think this opponent sees himself as trapping with QQ or JJ?


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No. It's not trapping to check-behind the turn and bet the river. If we check turn and river, he's going to be reasonably sure his hand is best and that we might call with worse, wherease us checking turn only doesn't assure him that his hand is best and doesn't assure him that we'll call with worse.

For example, suppose you have AK and the flop comes K 5 4 two diammonds. Villain checks and you bet and he calls. Turn comes 9 of diamonds. He checks and you check behind. River comes 6 of clubs. He checks. Don't you value bet? You weren't trapping with top pair, you just weren't sure.

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wouldnt our c/r be viewed as a very strong hand?


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Yes and no. It's viewed as a nuts or nothing type play. Villain will suspect we have TT or we have like a weak pair that we're turning into a bluff. Given how much he's committed at that point, he might decide to call with his Queens, it's not a guarantee but it's a possibility. Wherease if we just bet the river, it's almost certain that he will not raise us.

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Yes, I agree checking the river induces some bluffing. But wouldnt a river bet induce a bluff over the top at times too, given our check on the turn?


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Only very very rarely in my experience

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Weigh that against the loss of money we dont get from Q-Q and J-J when they check behind on the river. Its guess work for which line maximizes profits, i just hate leaving it up to an opponent in position to bet my hand for me, especially if he hasnt shown much aggression in the hand. He either isnt confident in his hand strength, or views himself as trapping. Both suggest we lead the river for a value bet.


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These are all good points. I don't think an opponent who is this aggressive checks behind QQ though. There are like three times as many AK combos as Jacks combos. So if he bluffs 1/3 of the time on the river, we make up the lost value. And this is assuming he never calls a check-raise when he would have otherwise just flat-called a bet.

Sorry for the essay [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[mistere45]

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For example, suppose you have AK and the flop comes K 5 4 two diammonds. Villain checks and you bet and he calls. Turn comes 9 of diamonds. He checks and you check behind. River comes 6 of clubs. He checks. Don't you value bet? You weren't trapping with top pair, you just weren't sure.


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Yes this is a good example. You werent trapping, you just werent sure. This is one of my twos possibilities for our villain. Not confident is where he stood. A scare card hit the turn and u check behind. So in your given example, now the opponent check-raises you on the river, do u call? if u fold, has the villain made anymore money by c/r than just leading out? The only real deabte is if we get value calls more often on the river than bluffs. I dont think we can expect to get a bluff 1/3 the time.