hay donks, a hand i played!

[Ship Ship McGipp]

ok, i don't usually fold here either.

i talked to two people who were big winners and are both way better than i am at tournaments, and said it was a fold and wasn't remotely close.

[Bakes]

It would take a very special hand in the fkn 100r for me to fold AK preflop. This sure ain't it, the only reason I play this god-forsaken overaggro tourney is so i can fistpump shove this and win the tournament with my big stack.

[Legend27]

I am LaJune and I run worse than any one on Stars. If I raise you all-in I never want you to call. Showdowns make me lose as I showed flopping top set in the top 18 and mucking on the river (all in preflop).

[nath]

lol @ folding AKs getting 3:2

[mikeJ]

mastr, I think people are very rarely showing up w/ AQ there.

When Jovial folds...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.625% 44.28% 12.35% 100079772 27906468.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.375% 31.03% 12.35% 70131420 27906468.00 { AKs }

You'll be getting about 57 to 37.7, so you need like 39.8% equity. So that's good for us.

When Jovial calls...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.243% 32.62% 05.62% 1244770860 214645234.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.582% 32.13% 04.46% 1225973712 170072626.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 25.175% 17.41% 07.76% 664526364 296190340.00 { AKs }

We're going to be getting around 73 to 30 in the main pot. We need 29.1% equity in the main pot. And we'll need to put another 7500 in the pot for the sidepot, which we will be putting in as a dog vs. LaJune's range. This is bad for us.

The only reason why this is close is because we have AKs, if we had AKo, this is a fold, and with AKs it's real close. I haven't played w/ atimos much so I don't know how often he's 3-betting light here. However, I think putting TT into LaJune's 4-betting range is generous. Yea, maybe he did a donkey overbet shove in hand 1, it doesn't mean he's going to suicide 4-bet cold shove w/ TT here. Also, when it gets back to atimos, he'll be getting just about 3 to 1, and I think there's a decent chance he'll fold AKo if mr. aejones reships.

[Bakes]

I don't think theres anything suicidal about shoving TT in lajunes spot.

[eymon222]

I'm not folding AKs. I'm pushing (insta call for me). It's a chance to accumalate alot of chips and the price is right.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

weird, i folded, and i wasn't all that unhappy about it. figured there was no way he was good enough to know the krantz theorem or try to bluff jovial when he was so clearly pot committed (he lol dtricked us when he foldd too)